{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59b37edd-e336-4665-992e-68d8ca6142c3", "symbol": "IMM", "name": "ImmuPharma plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.209, "architecture_energy": 27.019, "architecture_maturity": 88.643, "architecture_confidence": 90.614, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.03, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 7.84, "deceleration": 40.35, "rotation_down": 36.88, "downward_expansion": 69.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.040577, 0.04062, 0.041811, 0.045494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.051594, "distance_from_trend": -0.224721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.035861, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.659904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373041, "excess_performance": -0.424276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084366, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.436599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540035, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5670323, "relative_activity": 0.779763, "balance": 1.540035, "dry_up": 0.975143, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200481, "annualized_volatility": 0.826053, "from_high_reference": -0.793814, "from_low_reference": 1.886003 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051594, "fair_value_reference": 0.035861, "structural_low": 0.03305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001754, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.457143, "median_excess_return": -0.026343, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 7.038585, "worst_return": -0.393333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.041587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055309, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 3.007937, "worst_return": -0.560633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.100577, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.122003, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.34127, "worst_return": -0.600176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102996, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.735125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -35.08173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.229946, "energy": 27.879095, "activity_lines": [ 0.042203, 0.04212, 0.043057, 0.047459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0358, "volume": 7341743, "typical_volume": 9204954.95, "trend": 0.052694, "fair_value": 0.03576, "relative_strength": -49.13228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.820714, "energy": 33.765194, "activity_lines": [ 0.040643, 0.040923, 0.042153, 0.046313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 5670323, "typical_volume": 7271857.35, "trend": 0.051594, "fair_value": 0.035861, "relative_strength": -43.659904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.209068, "energy": 27.018892, "activity_lines": [ 0.040577, 0.04062, 0.041811, 0.045494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }