{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59b69c06-fdfe-4441-a64e-5880466f0791", "symbol": "INTEG-B", "name": "Integrum AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.116, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.583, "architecture_energy": 14.792, "architecture_maturity": 19.543, "architecture_confidence": 50.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.25, "rotation_up": 42.94, "upward_expansion": 42.93, "deceleration": 36.59, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 12.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.341333, 8.289636, 8.113, 8.049226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 8.211667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.127308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.688066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.060776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07281, "excess_performance": -0.134304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.688066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035901, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.566726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126643, "relative_activity": 0.862257, "balance": 3.566726, "dry_up": 0.663272, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093252, "annualized_volatility": 0.484451, "from_high_reference": -0.811124, "from_low_reference": 0.273438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.211667, "fair_value_reference": 26.127308, "structural_low": 6.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013836, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.055548, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.342213, "worst_return": -0.297365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.158491, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.148001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.384572, "worst_return": -0.425239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.420045, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.381987, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.887295, "worst_return": -0.526829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.554617, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.536654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296192, "worst_return": -0.674843, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.433275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056962, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.364261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.144289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.449617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.103563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00246, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.4, "volume": 70642, "typical_volume": 129000.55, "trend": 24.739333, "fair_value": 45.75468, "relative_strength": -36.211071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.911076, "energy": 8.919903, "activity_lines": [ 8.193333, 8.130182, 7.95281, 8.037054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.28, "volume": 132108, "typical_volume": 150148.9, "trend": 8.338667, "fair_value": 26.280641, "relative_strength": -46.633459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.159695, "energy": 7.821063, "activity_lines": [ 8.221333, 8.18, 7.997333, 8.029441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.78, "volume": 45975, "typical_volume": 147018.45, "trend": 8.284667, "fair_value": 26.211923, "relative_strength": -41.022672, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.372963, "energy": 28.885466, "activity_lines": [ 8.408667, 8.301091, 8.08719, 8.057914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 126643, "typical_volume": 146873.8, "trend": 8.211667, "fair_value": 26.127308, "relative_strength": -43.060776, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.583115, "energy": 14.792276, "activity_lines": [ 8.341333, 8.289636, 8.113, 8.049226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }