{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59bb1c91-7766-4817-96e1-76e3a882b014", "symbol": "GRI", "name": "Grainger plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.788, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.553, "architecture_energy": 34.933, "architecture_maturity": 7.309, "architecture_confidence": 62.346, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.59, "rotation_up": 63.23, "upward_expansion": 48.94, "deceleration": 22.75, "rotation_down": 16.65, "downward_expansion": 19.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.8, 173.812727, 168.634754, 169.468526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 176.3, "trend_reference": 173.46147, "distance_from_trend": 0.016364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 217.385766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.303242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091066, "excess_performance": -0.157344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091066, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.331841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10141130, "relative_activity": 0.972366, "balance": 1.331841, "dry_up": 1.352203, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048337, "annualized_volatility": 0.307315, "from_high_reference": -0.17191, "from_low_reference": 0.179486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 173.46147, "fair_value_reference": 217.385766, "structural_low": 149.471831, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038197, "worst_return": -0.053785, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04125, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.065248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01544, "worst_return": -0.112218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108374, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.187234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.062017, "worst_return": -0.179947, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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166.796235, 169.250317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.5, "volume": 20911665, "typical_volume": 10849827.1, "trend": 173.615293, "fair_value": 217.838534, "relative_strength": -11.524288, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.024463, "energy": 42.90972, "activity_lines": [ 175.406667, 172.432727, 167.635334, 169.295319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 176.3, "volume": 10141130, "typical_volume": 10429332.65, "trend": 173.46147, "fair_value": 217.385766, "relative_strength": -10.303242, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.553277, "energy": 34.933152, "activity_lines": [ 175.8, 173.812727, 168.634754, 169.468526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }