{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59bfb4ac-6092-4d60-9e8b-c3a7f15a653f", "symbol": "LTMC", "name": "Lottomatica Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.818, "architecture_energy": 27.224, "architecture_maturity": 8.1, "architecture_confidence": 60.723, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.98, "rotation_up": 14.91, "upward_expansion": 45.91, "deceleration": 70.54, "rotation_down": 43.99, "downward_expansion": 39.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.246666, 24.804182, 25.249554, 24.980209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.16, "trend_reference": 24.129728, "distance_from_trend": 0.001255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.346364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.075415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.187241, "excess_performance": 0.01635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060188, "read": "Rising" 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19.484584, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010618, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079832, "worst_return": -0.079111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.205531, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.171406, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30084, "worst_return": 0.110222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.455915, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.299182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.798319, "worst_return": 0.113511, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 25.1, "volume": 2689376, "typical_volume": 3867693.9, "trend": 23.931176, "fair_value": 16.053274, "relative_strength": -4.507662, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.508642, "energy": 14.665696, "activity_lines": [ 25.382667, 25.661273, 25.675427, 24.981185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.35, "volume": 2915425, "typical_volume": 3302823.8, "trend": 24.005535, "fair_value": 16.152954, "relative_strength": -6.831508, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.595929, "energy": 9.086971, "activity_lines": [ 25.004667, 25.415818, 25.565553, 25.008206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 6419421, "typical_volume": 3301553.8, "trend": 24.058425, "fair_value": 16.246974, "relative_strength": -10.440399, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.073891, "energy": 17.471324, "activity_lines": [ 24.472, 25.032363, 25.372576, 24.973656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.16, "volume": 3573129, "typical_volume": 3240568.1, "trend": 24.129728, "fair_value": 16.346364, "relative_strength": -10.075415, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.818315, "energy": 27.223808, "activity_lines": [ 24.246666, 24.804182, 25.249554, 24.980209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }