{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59c1efdf-7e71-439c-8bdb-4eb22d680e17", "symbol": "TCJ", "name": "T.C.J. Asia Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.63, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.418, "architecture_energy": 46.37, "architecture_maturity": 11.361, "architecture_confidence": 71.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.86, "rotation_up": 54.69, "upward_expansion": 82.4, "deceleration": 48.92, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 9.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.461333, 2.444727, 2.416667, 2.395355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.48, "trend_reference": 2.38, "distance_from_trend": 0.042017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.926667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.579332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016393, "excess_performance": -0.175932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067224, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016393, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8900, "relative_activity": 0.226233, "balance": 0.708789, "dry_up": 1.057448, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039082, "annualized_volatility": 0.119789, "from_high_reference": -0.173333, "from_low_reference": 0.137615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.38, "fair_value_reference": 2.926667, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021307, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038235, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.012195, "worst_return": -0.057426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071993, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.054878, "worst_return": -0.089109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146046, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115854, "worst_return": -0.176238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109756, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2.413333, 2.394909, 2.365143, 2.372559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.4, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 44085.0, "trend": 2.4, "fair_value": 2.976538, "relative_strength": -18.895625, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.008354, "energy": 16.924381, "activity_lines": [ 2.410667, 2.399636, 2.369429, 2.372043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.4, "volume": 196500, "typical_volume": 49620.0, "trend": 2.390667, "fair_value": 2.968077, "relative_strength": -21.528706, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.630965, "energy": 13.60261, "activity_lines": [ 2.409333, 2.402545, 2.373905, 2.372043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.46, "volume": 83800, "typical_volume": 40815.0, "trend": 2.388, "fair_value": 2.959872, "relative_strength": -19.274504, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.325129, "energy": 24.589044, "activity_lines": [ 2.425333, 2.414909, 2.383905, 2.376516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.44, "volume": 19700, "typical_volume": 40585.0, "trend": 2.384667, "fair_value": 2.951923, "relative_strength": -20.146042, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.135631, "energy": 19.465669, "activity_lines": [ 2.432, 2.421091, 2.391619, 2.379871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.42, "volume": 113400, "typical_volume": 44315.0, "trend": 2.378667, "fair_value": 2.942821, "relative_strength": -20.399053, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.723703, "energy": 27.957654, "activity_lines": [ 2.429333, 2.422545, 2.396857, 2.382151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.48, "volume": 24400, "typical_volume": 43595.0, "trend": 2.376667, "fair_value": 2.934487, "relative_strength": -16.793681, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.877217, "energy": 45.612394, "activity_lines": [ 2.448, 2.434182, 2.407143, 2.388688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.48, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 39340.0, "trend": 2.38, "fair_value": 2.926667, "relative_strength": -15.579332, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.418385, "energy": 46.36961, "activity_lines": [ 2.461333, 2.444727, 2.416667, 2.395355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }