{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59cddc95-a506-4d4f-b070-00ecf0ba0d98", "symbol": "MLEDR", "name": "Compagnie des Eaux de Royan", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.04, "architecture_energy": 23.086, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.623, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.35, "rotation_up": 32.58, "upward_expansion": 19.17, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 19.17, "downward_expansion": 53.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.026666, 35.378182, 35.634285, 36.776344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 36.0, "trend_reference": 38.38, "distance_from_trend": -0.062011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.794733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.366138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.528202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126214, "excess_performance": -0.179525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.366138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002465, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413156, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30, "relative_activity": 0.142925, "balance": 0.413156, "dry_up": 0.55979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050855, "annualized_volatility": 0.277427, "from_high_reference": -0.277108, "from_low_reference": 0.132076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.38, "fair_value_reference": 56.794733, "structural_low": 31.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.00823, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.002533, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.116592, "worst_return": -0.19, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.018977, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.085369, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.151471, "worst_return": -0.191176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056786, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.109268, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075, "worst_return": -0.31856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 33.493333, 34.04, 36.254285, 37.716989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 193.1, "trend": 39.246667, "fair_value": 58.000328, "relative_strength": -15.147757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.81081, "energy": 53.307241, "activity_lines": [ 34.466667, 34.298182, 36.104762, 37.516989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.599998, "volume": 204, "typical_volume": 198.65, "trend": 39.033333, "fair_value": 57.685278, "relative_strength": -14.259297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.653943, "energy": 35.906149, "activity_lines": [ 35.306667, 34.632727, 36.004762, 37.346236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.599998, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": 206.25, "trend": 38.773333, "fair_value": 57.388802, "relative_strength": -16.354324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.678069, "energy": 29.384488, "activity_lines": [ 35.639999, 34.818181, 35.830476, 37.124731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 208.6, "trend": 38.626666, "fair_value": 57.101137, "relative_strength": -16.154549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.785536, "energy": 31.738996, "activity_lines": [ 35.933333, 35.098181, 35.724762, 36.945806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.0, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 209.9, "trend": 38.38, "fair_value": 56.794733, "relative_strength": -17.528202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.039806, "energy": 23.08607, "activity_lines": [ 36.026666, 35.378182, 35.634285, 36.776344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }