{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59d8bac7-9118-48d1-9125-93d41c9a2117", "symbol": "HASH", "name": "Hashdex Nasdaq CME Crypto Index ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.396, "architecture_energy": 31.667, "architecture_maturity": 81.953, "architecture_confidence": 81.612, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.56, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 17.25, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 27.27, "downward_expansion": 60.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.2962, 39.733133, 41.421341, 42.406414 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.069901, "trend_reference": 44.342176, "distance_from_trend": -0.096348, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.120022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.231199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.624862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075471, "excess_performance": -0.128783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130404, "read": "Falling" 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36.694698, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02878, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.024742, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.507167, "worst_return": -0.21583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008087, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022097, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.768482, "worst_return": -0.229335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012133, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038791, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.447681, "worst_return": -0.359439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.392222, "energy": 94.650523, "activity_lines": [ 38.488005, 41.562928, 43.359574, 44.879901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.9958, "volume": 309, "typical_volume": 320.05, "trend": 47.291036, "fair_value": 51.604182, "relative_strength": -36.327404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.000651, "energy": 87.82055, "activity_lines": [ 38.324786, 40.696956, 42.910803, 44.303258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.077801, "volume": 77, "typical_volume": 310.45, "trend": 46.655133, "fair_value": 51.699997, "relative_strength": -32.495394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.051364, "energy": 79.013481, "activity_lines": [ 38.926433, 40.192909, 42.573204, 43.837888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.342899, "volume": 7386, "typical_volume": 678.35, "trend": 46.073736, "fair_value": 51.797809, "relative_strength": -32.791542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.803989, "energy": 61.77035, "activity_lines": [ 39.099973, 39.680625, 42.175346, 43.366131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.513699, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 772.9, "trend": 45.587346, "fair_value": 51.910057, "relative_strength": -28.451808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.966379, "energy": 41.615924, "activity_lines": [ 39.990653, 39.730868, 41.992161, 43.071935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.197201, "volume": 607, "typical_volume": 793.65, "trend": 44.995323, "fair_value": 52.016274, "relative_strength": -30.817397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.478016, "energy": 33.769044, "activity_lines": [ 40.281393, 39.675963, 41.699782, 42.724183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.069901, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 800.0, "trend": 44.342176, "fair_value": 52.120022, "relative_strength": -31.624862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.395514, "energy": 31.666861, "activity_lines": [ 40.2962, 39.733133, 41.421341, 42.406414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }