{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59d91d02-f578-4a6d-be96-c6445f91dea5", "symbol": "ECOR3", "name": "EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Log\u00edstica S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.285, "architecture_energy": 63.793, "architecture_maturity": 42.111, "architecture_confidence": 94.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 62.98, "downward_expansion": 85.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.916667, 7.099636, 7.433069, 7.843126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.63, "trend_reference": 8.5443, "distance_from_trend": -0.224044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.166274, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.159352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.369518, "excess_performance": -0.31247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.369518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.137395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33268200, "relative_activity": 1.43203, "balance": 0.137395, "dry_up": 1.045816, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098803, "annualized_volatility": 0.474091, "from_high_reference": -0.444382, "from_low_reference": 0.037489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.5443, "fair_value_reference": 7.166274, "structural_low": 6.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.008681, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003789, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.277641, "worst_return": -0.198819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032857, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.656331, "worst_return": -0.269525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077891, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.072352, "worst_return": -0.406225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.917737, 8.423958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.77, "volume": 17488200, "typical_volume": 26723330.0, "trend": 8.979161, "fair_value": 7.173369, "relative_strength": -15.901118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.936218, "energy": 39.293907, "activity_lines": [ 7.489333, 7.444503, 7.861161, 8.340748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.04, "volume": 19377800, "typical_volume": 26687675.0, "trend": 8.88515, "fair_value": 7.172377, "relative_strength": -21.797449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.57838, "energy": 38.837888, "activity_lines": [ 7.376667, 7.354, 7.748182, 8.215641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.01, "volume": 21021500, "typical_volume": 25950685.0, "trend": 8.782749, "fair_value": 7.171307, "relative_strength": -22.096323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.601756, "energy": 43.987771, "activity_lines": [ 7.269333, 7.286364, 7.64798, 8.094663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.93, "volume": 23516000, "typical_volume": 24639960.0, "trend": 8.676075, "fair_value": 7.169382, "relative_strength": -24.474887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.866603, "energy": 46.911, "activity_lines": [ 7.127333, 7.214545, 7.550656, 7.975131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.63, "volume": 33268200, "typical_volume": 23231500.0, "trend": 8.5443, "fair_value": 7.166274, "relative_strength": -25.159352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.285124, "energy": 63.792615, "activity_lines": [ 6.916667, 7.099636, 7.433069, 7.843126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }