{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59d9e4b3-77d8-48d4-9443-ea032391efc1", "symbol": "BEM", "name": "Beowulf Mining plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.923, "architecture_energy": 29.133, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.87, "rotation_up": 48.36, "upward_expansion": 49.0, "deceleration": 32.33, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 16.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.079, 0.075045, 0.07006, 0.069226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.072167, "distance_from_trend": 0.385681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.273894, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.644108, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052632, "excess_performance": 0.001396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.385681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128773, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056441, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.521413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.426267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1125098, "relative_activity": 2.231, "balance": 3.426267, "dry_up": 0.818517, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2899, "annualized_volatility": 1.025819, "from_high_reference": -0.230769, "from_low_reference": 2.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.072167, "fair_value_reference": 0.273894, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.105674, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.45, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.470584, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.047619, "worst_return": -0.458333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.511905, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.616549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.47619, "worst_return": -0.53125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.687649, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.817363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.619048, "worst_return": -0.75625, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.315789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.343284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176471, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.7875, "volume": 14587, "typical_volume": 38669.45, "trend": 0.998417, "fair_value": 2.544332, "relative_strength": -45.041144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.358222, "energy": 14.110056, "activity_lines": [ 0.067167, 0.069955, 0.065702, 0.06821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 254668, "typical_volume": 501669.55, "trend": 0.074, "fair_value": 0.282981, "relative_strength": -28.779228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.980675, "energy": 14.858358, "activity_lines": [ 0.066667, 0.069773, 0.066012, 0.067699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 116780, "typical_volume": 483747.25, "trend": 0.072333, "fair_value": 0.278381, "relative_strength": -26.211965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.492832, "energy": 12.123689, "activity_lines": [ 0.067833, 0.069818, 0.066619, 0.067441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 1125098, "typical_volume": 504302.2, "trend": 0.072167, "fair_value": 0.273894, "relative_strength": 5.644108, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.92322, "energy": 29.132704, "activity_lines": [ 0.079, 0.075045, 0.07006, 0.069226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }