{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59dba3e2-0945-4361-8b09-db04bace12fa", "symbol": "002469", "name": "Shandong Sunway Chemical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.549, "architecture_energy": 62.737, "architecture_maturity": 65.677, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.96, "rotation_down": 55.18, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.646667, 5.770909, 6.206072, 6.75876 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.75, "trend_reference": 7.45441, "distance_from_trend": -0.228645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.623299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.743784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.376423, "excess_performance": -0.383823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.376423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.280696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33321590, "relative_activity": 0.689493, "balance": 0.280696, "dry_up": 0.689377, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087394, "annualized_volatility": 0.483086, "from_high_reference": -0.436884, "from_low_reference": 0.084906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.45441, "fair_value_reference": 6.623299, "structural_low": 5.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.026248, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030793, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.516129, "worst_return": -0.113703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049069, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.081689, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.637317, "worst_return": -0.158526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058245, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.143252, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.685535, "worst_return": -0.105802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 7.611709, "fair_value": 6.617259, "relative_strength": -33.414054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.808363, "energy": 88.129326, "activity_lines": [ 5.564, 5.884909, 6.436667, 6.993251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 31790413, "typical_volume": 57334440.8, "trend": 7.532903, "fair_value": 6.620144, "relative_strength": -26.641042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.113125, "energy": 76.946105, "activity_lines": [ 5.61, 5.820182, 6.312218, 6.873786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.75, "volume": 33321590, "typical_volume": 48327687.15, "trend": 7.45441, "fair_value": 6.623299, "relative_strength": -29.743784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.548808, "energy": 62.736947, "activity_lines": [ 5.646667, 5.770909, 6.206072, 6.75876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }