{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59e11a59-eed3-4457-b896-ab0a33995d6e", "symbol": "EVO", "name": "Evotec SE ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.576, "architecture_energy": 87.871, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 8.07, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 78.2, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.011, 2.264, 2.53119, 2.651355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.0, "trend_reference": 2.865833, "distance_from_trend": -0.302123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.974136, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.451811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.433428, "excess_performance": -0.620881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.444518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.433428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 666323, "relative_activity": 1.878519, "balance": 0.558397, "dry_up": 1.305934, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140146, "annualized_volatility": 0.79224, "from_high_reference": -0.531616, "from_low_reference": 0.055409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.865833, "fair_value_reference": 4.974136, "structural_low": 1.895, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.485714, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": 0.003429, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.255871, "worst_return": -0.374494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.026239, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.123711, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.221591, "worst_return": -0.364557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.143335, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.197897, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.321897, "worst_return": -0.399522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.775886, "energy": 67.000022, "activity_lines": [ 2.512, 2.639545, 2.751167, 2.847301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.94, "volume": 216212, "typical_volume": 390868.5, "trend": 2.9635, "fair_value": 5.105738, "relative_strength": -44.894606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.588944, "energy": 83.272406, "activity_lines": [ 2.295667, 2.496545, 2.672667, 2.778753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 307735, "typical_volume": 359147.65, "trend": 2.921167, "fair_value": 5.037854, "relative_strength": -45.118466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.025956, "energy": 89.849488, "activity_lines": [ 2.110667, 2.361909, 2.59669, 2.710785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0, "volume": 666323, "typical_volume": 354706.55, "trend": 2.865833, "fair_value": 4.974136, "relative_strength": -44.451811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.576373, "energy": 87.870658, "activity_lines": [ 2.011, 2.264, 2.53119, 2.651355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }