{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "59e3bce6-380f-4c1b-be76-1230017ba033",
    "symbol": "NXTG",
    "name": "First Trust Indxx NextG UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 46.447,
    "architecture_energy": 31.069,
    "architecture_maturity": 72.672,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.144,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.77,
        "rotation_up": 28.89,
        "upward_expansion": 62.27,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 27.97,
        "downward_expansion": 23.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        47.074,
        47.598272,
        46.920095,
        44.788849
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 47.98,
    "trend_reference": 41.870833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.145905,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.62125,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.566886,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 8.993499,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.375968,
    "excess_performance": 0.205076,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.145905,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130463,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.566886,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002263,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089935,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.086044,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.375968,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.621762,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2321,
      "relative_activity": 2.705759,
      "balance": 4.621762,
      "dry_up": 1.032583,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.037139,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.235608,
      "from_high_reference": -0.049148,
      "from_low_reference": 0.569769
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.870833,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.62125,
      "structural_low": 34.535,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.027448,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002536,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.075875,
        "worst_return": -0.014662,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.084342,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.055935,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.113803,
        "worst_return": 0.036279,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.118079,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.086945,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.480036,
        "worst_return": 0.056848,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.130547,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.054131,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.183697,
        "worst_return": 0.077396,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024055,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.049242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052742,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.055135,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.078803,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.094627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.058703,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.044764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009421,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.354041,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016633,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 22.465,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 733.15,
        "trend": 22.268667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 97.868816,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.239668,
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          37.303738,
          36.395064
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 1395,
        "typical_volume": 1093.8,
        "trend": 35.727,
        "fair_value": 28.530833,
        "relative_strength": 17.597858,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 98.376902,
        "energy": 99.380282,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1219.3,
        "trend": 36.124,
        "fair_value": 28.679295,
        "relative_strength": 18.976981,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.322697,
        "energy": 97.570883,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.478334,
          41.099455,
          38.914953,
          37.611935
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 317,
        "typical_volume": 1195.15,
        "trend": 36.533833,
        "fair_value": 28.83234,
        "relative_strength": 19.300211,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.141506,
        "energy": 96.471594,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.249419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1294.3,
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        "relative_strength": 26.879068,
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 97.677963,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.863381,
          39.104333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 570,
        "typical_volume": 1322.8,
        "trend": 37.533,
        "fair_value": 29.174071,
        "relative_strength": 25.656549,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.940046,
        "energy": 93.804468,
        "activity_lines": [
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          39.907323
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 49.384998,
        "volume": 165,
        "typical_volume": 948.3,
        "trend": 38.063167,
        "fair_value": 29.340962,
        "relative_strength": 20.870797,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.030385,
        "energy": 91.719638,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 107,
        "typical_volume": 920.25,
        "trend": 38.646333,
        "fair_value": 29.517853,
        "relative_strength": 19.072749,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 76.737262,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 190,
        "typical_volume": 929.75,
        "trend": 39.1795,
        "fair_value": 29.681667,
        "relative_strength": 18.481684,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.495268,
        "energy": 68.627229,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.395999,
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          44.511095,
          42.099742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 47.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 929.75,
        "trend": 39.658333,
        "fair_value": 29.841763,
        "relative_strength": 12.499181,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.69352,
        "energy": 67.041809,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.829665,
          48.361181,
          45.095666,
          42.655903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 48.724998,
        "volume": 703,
        "typical_volume": 797.3,
        "trend": 40.148166,
        "fair_value": 30.006987,
        "relative_strength": 14.639519,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.177911,
        "energy": 65.181246,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.703998,
          48.620181,
          45.706761,
          43.240849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 45.990002,
        "volume": 322,
        "typical_volume": 778.75,
        "trend": 40.568666,
        "fair_value": 30.154808,
        "relative_strength": 9.356819,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.966726,
        "energy": 50.759963,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.717333,
          48.255545,
          46.000666,
          43.617742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 47.195,
        "volume": 217,
        "typical_volume": 747.55,
        "trend": 41.016833,
        "fair_value": 30.307981,
        "relative_strength": 11.962406,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.625517,
        "energy": 43.708782,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.358667,
          48.085454,
          46.367952,
          44.045247
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 45.98,
        "volume": 683,
        "typical_volume": 741.75,
        "trend": 41.417333,
        "fair_value": 30.457692,
        "relative_strength": 7.975234,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.267585,
        "energy": 32.796371,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.793333,
          47.659818,
          46.572119,
          44.365451
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 47.98,
        "volume": 2321,
        "typical_volume": 857.8,
        "trend": 41.870833,
        "fair_value": 30.62125,
        "relative_strength": 8.993499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.446557,
        "energy": 31.068948,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.074,
          47.598272,
          46.920095,
          44.788849
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}