{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59e5f3cf-d4d7-4715-93b7-544ee4382239", "symbol": "WAL", "name": "Western Alliance Bancorporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.618, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.483, "architecture_energy": 10.891, "architecture_maturity": 12.587, "architecture_confidence": 75.142, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.49, "rotation_up": 34.16, "upward_expansion": 36.57, "deceleration": 38.78, "rotation_down": 26.96, "downward_expansion": 13.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.548667, 81.562727, 80.660828, 79.792125 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 81.33, "trend_reference": 80.355241, "distance_from_trend": 0.012131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.067891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.116713, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129698, "excess_performance": -0.255323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128519, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.477398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4734009, "relative_activity": 0.918859, "balance": 1.477398, "dry_up": 0.972119, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062281, "annualized_volatility": 0.355255, "from_high_reference": -0.155119, "from_low_reference": 0.242572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.355241, "fair_value_reference": 72.067891, "structural_low": 65.452953, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.040645, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149223, "worst_return": -0.19674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405082, "worst_return": -0.216406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.183572, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053016, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.54518, "worst_return": -0.360586, "sufficient": true }, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.117967, "energy": 12.364008, "activity_lines": [ 81.283333, 80.799263, 79.073489, 79.529814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.3, "volume": 3954921, "typical_volume": 5935607.85, "trend": 80.841921, "fair_value": 71.446637, "relative_strength": -7.143652, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.052718, "energy": 15.199788, "activity_lines": [ 81.526, 81.178909, 79.5641, 79.617001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.11, "volume": 7538391, "typical_volume": 5641402.45, "trend": 80.755645, "fair_value": 71.663151, "relative_strength": -5.44199, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.663647, "energy": 20.08946, "activity_lines": [ 82.13, 81.690364, 80.120323, 79.763329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.49, "volume": 3806300, "typical_volume": 5346590.1, "trend": 80.618006, "fair_value": 71.861967, "relative_strength": -9.21124, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.412184, "energy": 14.751941, "activity_lines": [ 81.647333, 81.567455, 80.381275, 79.74619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.33, "volume": 4734009, "typical_volume": 5152051.95, "trend": 80.355241, "fair_value": 72.067891, "relative_strength": -11.116713, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.48345, "energy": 10.890512, "activity_lines": [ 81.548667, 81.562727, 80.660828, 79.792125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }