{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59ecf22d-1407-4f6a-89da-a378e303dd87", "symbol": "601318", "name": "Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.623, "architecture_energy": 25.742, "architecture_maturity": 86.291, "architecture_confidence": 71.923, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.92, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 21.14, "downward_expansion": 55.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.296001, 51.892993, 52.406883, 54.15636 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.380001, "trend_reference": 57.160573, "distance_from_trend": -0.06614, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.042453, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.661759, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.2003, "excess_performance": -0.157096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06614, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016285, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2003, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.863564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356486711, "relative_activity": 1.052595, "balance": 0.863564, "dry_up": 1.384126, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055682, "annualized_volatility": 0.24874, "from_high_reference": -0.287126, "from_low_reference": 0.130932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.160573, "fair_value_reference": 49.042453, "structural_low": 47.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.018826, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000995, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.124901, "worst_return": -0.090717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004084, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013638, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.28687, "worst_return": -0.147739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040971, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.338293, "worst_return": -0.129951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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48.815797, "relative_strength": -8.896332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.019112, "energy": 59.889825, "activity_lines": [ 49.502, 50.21501, 52.426748, 54.947245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.02, "volume": 602068818, "typical_volume": 332129256.2, "trend": 58.20324, "fair_value": 48.893096, "relative_strength": -3.989003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.034484, "energy": 37.843392, "activity_lines": [ 51.116667, 50.781633, 52.375047, 54.645681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.900002, "volume": 429695109, "typical_volume": 338431985.35, "trend": 57.66124, "fair_value": 48.967889, "relative_strength": -2.68511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.573671, "energy": 22.611776, "activity_lines": [ 52.715334, 51.502422, 52.448346, 54.432569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.380001, "volume": 356486711, "typical_volume": 338674293.5, "trend": 57.160573, "fair_value": 49.042453, "relative_strength": -7.661759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.622932, "energy": 25.742177, "activity_lines": [ 53.296001, 51.892993, 52.406883, 54.15636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }