{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59f1a62f-652b-4a4c-8ce3-986a75dd1d3a", "symbol": "1180", "name": "The Saudi National Bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.255, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.188, "architecture_energy": 10.943, "architecture_maturity": 30.84, "architecture_confidence": 53.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.38, "rotation_up": 25.84, "upward_expansion": 14.9, "deceleration": 41.55, "rotation_down": 30.14, "downward_expansion": 62.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.177582, 38.994393, 39.263083, 39.604906 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.860001, "trend_reference": 40.160687, "distance_from_trend": 0.017413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.577085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.357445, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035386, "excess_performance": -0.003557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0172, "read": "Rising" 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36.236214, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010899, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014386, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.198795, "worst_return": -0.152196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032155, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.335962, "worst_return": -0.199683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000235, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016266, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.165615, "worst_return": -0.273376, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 34.505098, "relative_strength": 1.858445, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.007397, "energy": 70.366324, "activity_lines": [ 37.841258, 38.621941, 39.187323, 39.610215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 24071603, "typical_volume": 20145325.65, "trend": 40.106782, "fair_value": 34.534125, "relative_strength": 5.77232, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.500466, "energy": 59.559336, "activity_lines": [ 38.206753, 38.65544, 39.145775, 39.556311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.860001, "volume": 21893145, "typical_volume": 20772717.25, "trend": 40.160687, "fair_value": 34.577085, "relative_strength": 7.357445, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.18844, "energy": 10.942882, "activity_lines": [ 39.177582, 38.994393, 39.263083, 39.604906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }