{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59f2b2d3-4b8a-4b11-957b-e8cdfccafdd4", "symbol": "NVD", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.23, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.499, "architecture_energy": 38.674, "architecture_maturity": 26.137, "architecture_confidence": 76.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.11, "rotation_up": 52.9, "upward_expansion": 74.42, "deceleration": 60.16, "rotation_down": 21.41, "downward_expansion": 5.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.937334, 180.228001, 179.80226, 175.449997 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 194.220001, "trend_reference": 169.878593, "distance_from_trend": 0.143287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.369566, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.640793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.640772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.248513, "excess_performance": 0.183873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.640793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096408, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.248513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504063, "relative_activity": 1.062841, "balance": 0.830997, "dry_up": 1.023854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061509, "annualized_volatility": 0.356218, "from_high_reference": -0.036745, "from_low_reference": 0.391805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 169.878593, "fair_value_reference": 118.369566, "structural_low": 144.345906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.042223, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021384, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.416587, "worst_return": -0.129771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039493, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.014053, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.429937, "worst_return": -0.224534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069695, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.161019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.734424, "worst_return": 0.013203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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183.919998, "volume": 320690, "typical_volume": 472958.0, "trend": 168.406891, "fair_value": 116.532175, "relative_strength": 9.219021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.384027, "energy": 28.950273, "activity_lines": [ 179.609333, 179.046768, 178.175314, 173.674213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.42, "volume": 533548, "typical_volume": 473210.9, "trend": 168.708461, "fair_value": 117.362724, "relative_strength": -0.946382, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.404506, "energy": 16.429223, "activity_lines": [ 177.321333, 177.315861, 177.884104, 173.804091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.220001, "volume": 504063, "typical_volume": 474260.15, "trend": 169.878593, "fair_value": 118.369566, "relative_strength": 9.640772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.498982, "energy": 38.67449, "activity_lines": [ 182.937334, 180.228001, 179.80226, 175.449997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }