{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "59f74d4b-3ab3-42e9-8c0d-711e71162552",
    "symbol": "AW1P",
    "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hUSD acc",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 66.061,
    "architecture_energy": 52.721,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.921,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.78,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.5,
        "rotation_up": 45.53,
        "upward_expansion": 71.14,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 27.83,
        "downward_expansion": 21.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.101333,
        26.138091,
        25.6525,
        24.968075
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 26.57,
    "trend_reference": 24.176166,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099016,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 20.522814,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294657,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.194686,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.171775,
    "excess_performance": 0.107135,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099016,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057236,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.294657,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04208,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061947,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05781,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.171775,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.001097,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 30591,
      "relative_activity": 0.846077,
      "balance": 2.001097,
      "dry_up": 1.188486,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022582,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133748,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003936,
      "from_low_reference": 0.29515
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.176166,
      "fair_value_reference": 20.522814,
      "structural_low": 21.355,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.008845,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007254,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.072696,
        "worst_return": -0.0248,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.031452,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006802,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.131673,
        "worst_return": -0.189396,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.123964,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00959,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.129204,
        "worst_return": -0.073916,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.121746,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.107153,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.20046,
        "worst_return": 0.043031,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030561,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.009581,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.048965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.096729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.149944,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031561,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.020739,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "return": 0.009482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.072788,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 75.424379,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 28695.7,
        "trend": 22.574,
        "fair_value": 19.707372,
        "relative_strength": 11.975659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 90.330171,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 31380.35,
        "trend": 22.671333,
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        "relative_strength": 13.583101,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 90.278637,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 30772.15,
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        "relative_strength": 10.605448,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 91.859477,
        "activity_lines": [
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          23.122312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 33321.1,
        "trend": 22.867333,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 7552,
        "typical_volume": 32602.25,
        "trend": 22.99,
        "fair_value": 19.948602,
        "relative_strength": 11.612944,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.817523,
        "energy": 88.453616,
        "activity_lines": [
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          23.455344
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 25.709999,
        "volume": 24405,
        "typical_volume": 32671.1,
        "trend": 23.116,
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        "relative_strength": 13.142058,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 31112.25,
        "trend": 23.411333,
        "fair_value": 20.139628,
        "relative_strength": 13.678706,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.082387,
        "energy": 88.617836,
        "activity_lines": [
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          24.021355
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 26.559999,
        "volume": 1285,
        "typical_volume": 29974.7,
        "trend": 23.550333,
        "fair_value": 20.207295,
        "relative_strength": 10.349651,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 91.843028,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.203333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 26.58,
        "volume": 77046,
        "typical_volume": 32201.1,
        "trend": 23.700833,
        "fair_value": 20.273705,
        "relative_strength": 13.057346,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.520621,
        "energy": 89.374487,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.389333,
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          25.052405,
          24.419957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 25.92,
        "volume": 31958,
        "typical_volume": 33091.45,
        "trend": 23.8255,
        "fair_value": 20.33532,
        "relative_strength": 10.854371,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.647396,
        "energy": 68.541038,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.276,
          26.053909,
          25.216476,
          24.563129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 25.889999,
        "volume": 55493,
        "typical_volume": 33319.2,
        "trend": 23.946333,
        "fair_value": 20.394923,
        "relative_strength": 9.149656,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.327196,
        "energy": 64.025486,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.138666,
          26.073,
          25.363357,
          24.696322
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.645,
        "volume": 53843,
        "typical_volume": 35662.35,
        "trend": 24.0565,
        "fair_value": 20.455186,
        "relative_strength": 5.593279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.292012,
        "energy": 51.128898,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.951,
          26.026363,
          25.471762,
          24.805914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.57,
        "volume": 30591,
        "typical_volume": 36156.3,
        "trend": 24.176166,
        "fair_value": 20.522814,
        "relative_strength": 6.194686,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.060774,
        "energy": 52.720758,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.101333,
          26.138091,
          25.6525,
          24.968075
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}