{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59fdb6b5-f78b-4856-bbdb-63c52aa9c1c1", "symbol": "688098", "name": "Shanghai Shen Lian Biomedical Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.238, "architecture_energy": 24.966, "architecture_maturity": 20.584, "architecture_confidence": 71.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.37, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 12.25, "deceleration": 58.45, "rotation_down": 54.2, "downward_expansion": 66.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.432667, 8.594182, 8.546143, 8.655032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.61, "trend_reference": 8.875333, "distance_from_trend": -0.029896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.033364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.353425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096537, "excess_performance": -0.053333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040228, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224165, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565019, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13886678, "relative_activity": 0.688029, "balance": 0.565019, "dry_up": 0.79224, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088984, "annualized_volatility": 0.376779, "from_high_reference": -0.50996, "from_low_reference": 0.16825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.875333, "fair_value_reference": 7.033364, "structural_low": 7.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034627, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.009301, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.261773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066246, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.059623, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.087635, "worst_return": -0.304569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096537, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.060048, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.006002, "worst_return": -0.223448, "sufficient": true 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.806957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 9.15, "volume": 31536680, "typical_volume": 20024444.1, "trend": 8.954667, "fair_value": 7.010228, "relative_strength": -4.338618, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.24107, "energy": 27.144074, "activity_lines": [ 9.098, 8.694, 8.670143, 8.803828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.4, "volume": 24560323, "typical_volume": 20138406.7, "trend": 8.936333, "fair_value": 7.017128, "relative_strength": -7.109831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.040397, "energy": 21.873475, "activity_lines": [ 8.932, 8.669818, 8.636286, 8.768043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.95, "volume": 15895210, "typical_volume": 20160462.0, "trend": 8.901, "fair_value": 7.020444, "relative_strength": -13.436954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.084039, "energy": 19.295796, "activity_lines": [ 8.612, 8.571273, 8.565762, 8.704409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.41, "volume": 9617746, "typical_volume": 20050739.9, "trend": 8.884333, "fair_value": 7.026644, "relative_strength": -9.11167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.855627, "energy": 21.279163, "activity_lines": [ 8.482, 8.566182, 8.545, 8.672731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.61, "volume": 13886678, "typical_volume": 20183275.65, "trend": 8.875333, "fair_value": 7.033364, "relative_strength": -9.353425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.237933, "energy": 24.965709, "activity_lines": [ 8.432667, 8.594182, 8.546143, 8.655032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }