{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a066807-da6e-4ef9-92bd-9022173feda5", "symbol": "UMAY", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - May", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.517, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.992, "architecture_energy": 56.2, "architecture_maturity": 46.329, "architecture_confidence": 71.717, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 61.61, "upward_expansion": 80.69, "deceleration": 62.99, "rotation_down": 20.92, "downward_expansion": 7.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.219507, 38.089885, 37.91883, 37.67842 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.6611, "trend_reference": 37.368933, "distance_from_trend": 0.034579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.421399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.399792, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052808, "excess_performance": -0.072817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034579, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00034, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052808, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.270495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28953, "relative_activity": 0.152688, "balance": 7.270495, "dry_up": 0.396147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010372, "annualized_volatility": 0.044423, "from_high_reference": -0.00023, "from_low_reference": 0.09942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.368933, "fair_value_reference": 33.421399, "structural_low": 36.38, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.008183, "positive_rate": 0.761905, "directional_follow_through": 0.761905, "median_excess_return": -0.007313, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.031355, "worst_return": -0.032761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020815, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.025288, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.044712, "worst_return": -0.00498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039147, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.031565, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.091209, "worst_return": -0.056976, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.179, "volume": 57622, "typical_volume": 177507.85, "trend": 37.158833, "fair_value": 33.16456, "relative_strength": -6.087921, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.233066, "energy": 56.459619, "activity_lines": [ 37.975873, 37.911147, 37.668915, 37.44217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.9968, "volume": 182693, "typical_volume": 186020.85, "trend": 37.21054, "fair_value": 33.227296, "relative_strength": -4.884146, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.359084, "energy": 48.645959, "activity_lines": [ 38.002473, 37.934929, 37.725595, 37.496232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.9115, "volume": 51927, "typical_volume": 187552.2, "trend": 37.254913, "fair_value": 33.289228, "relative_strength": -4.376136, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.408038, "energy": 46.306708, "activity_lines": [ 37.984853, 37.937624, 37.768766, 37.541455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.02, "volume": 36900, "typical_volume": 188565.15, "trend": 37.30323, "fair_value": 33.35328, "relative_strength": -4.930934, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.483871, "energy": 42.850448, "activity_lines": [ 38.006627, 37.956564, 37.816461, 37.590816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.6611, "volume": 28953, "typical_volume": 189622.35, "trend": 37.368933, "fair_value": 33.421399, "relative_strength": -6.399792, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.992355, "energy": 56.199982, "activity_lines": [ 38.219507, 38.089885, 37.91883, 37.67842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }