{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a0cddcf-c49d-4591-9794-9d1ecb195ee8", "symbol": "FNTN", "name": "freenet AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.314, "architecture_energy": 28.512, "architecture_maturity": 62.127, "architecture_confidence": 60.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.27, "rotation_up": 23.9, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 66.75, "rotation_down": 36.51, "downward_expansion": 62.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.196001, 24.174182, 24.598779, 24.92115 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 25.571846, "distance_from_trend": -0.053647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.107734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.663636, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182017, "excess_performance": -0.356264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.207865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.207865, "dry_up": 0.234826, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037127, "annualized_volatility": 0.241444, "from_high_reference": -0.226468, "from_low_reference": 0.054926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.571846, "fair_value_reference": 24.107734, "structural_low": 22.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014034, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.005852, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.12761, "worst_return": -0.11774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068232, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017711, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165005, "worst_return": -0.043104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.164364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18223, "worst_return": 0.081216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041116, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"energy": 59.051903, "activity_lines": [ 24.858666, 25.160482, 25.230417, 25.674271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.219999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.55, "trend": 26.054011, "fair_value": 23.914796, "relative_strength": -28.572635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.04213, "energy": 79.646821, "activity_lines": [ 24.249333, 24.789055, 25.003132, 25.485692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.620001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.55, "trend": 25.964821, "fair_value": 23.946768, "relative_strength": -25.854619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.361251, "energy": 82.120394, "activity_lines": [ 23.912, 24.521079, 24.849707, 25.328659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 267.15, "trend": 25.864681, "fair_value": 23.983034, "relative_strength": -22.156625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.693524, "energy": 77.569893, "activity_lines": [ 23.846667, 24.381454, 24.770396, 25.212219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 241.95, "trend": 25.77562, "fair_value": 24.020839, "relative_strength": -21.907539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.03801, "energy": 66.075392, "activity_lines": [ 23.988, 24.305818, 24.721207, 25.117723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 251.25, "trend": 25.671269, "fair_value": 24.06538, "relative_strength": -21.910678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.453758, "energy": 41.098193, "activity_lines": [ 24.102667, 24.225818, 24.657423, 25.01607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 251.25, "trend": 25.571846, "fair_value": 24.107734, "relative_strength": -23.663636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.313503, "energy": 28.511692, "activity_lines": [ 24.196001, 24.174182, 24.598779, 24.92115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }