{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a1abd05-9b31-4f01-95aa-289522ea1aee", "symbol": "OLED", "name": "Universal Display", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.95, "architecture_energy": 31.177, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.389, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.31, "rotation_up": 26.53, "upward_expansion": 17.47, "deceleration": 62.34, "rotation_down": 43.97, "downward_expansion": 67.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.72, 83.481765, 86.585584, 89.683547 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 91.19, "trend_reference": 95.502616, "distance_from_trend": -0.045157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 145.28775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.372349, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.682122, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238821, "excess_performance": -0.426275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.372349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01869, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3622381, "relative_activity": 0.921697, "balance": 1.056791, "dry_up": 0.95528, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080088, "annualized_volatility": 0.429256, "from_high_reference": -0.396623, "from_low_reference": 0.193274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.502616, "fair_value_reference": 145.28775, "structural_low": 76.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.012745, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.013493, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.131319, "worst_return": -0.246837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.065709, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.095516, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.256122, "worst_return": -0.309579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.163095, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.166919, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.229904, "worst_return": -0.284204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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88.486029, 90.001951, 92.293986, 96.672293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 78.7, "volume": 2801305, "typical_volume": 4016941.6, "trend": 101.620795, "fair_value": 147.236848, "relative_strength": -42.028622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.73825, "energy": 53.13296, "activity_lines": [ 85.099803, 87.660455, 90.706826, 95.105741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 81.04, "volume": 3961945, "typical_volume": 3956726.5, "trend": 100.440515, "fair_value": 146.865119, "relative_strength": -40.374893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.387279, "energy": 59.884231, "activity_lines": [ 83.354164, 86.104057, 89.556095, 93.777948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.18, "volume": 3033847, "typical_volume": 3903453.25, "trend": 99.256983, "fair_value": 146.497639, "relative_strength": -37.48274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.927938, "energy": 67.618354, "activity_lines": [ 81.628, 84.660661, 88.427769, 92.470818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.27, "volume": 2923045, "typical_volume": 3897585.2, "trend": 97.955738, "fair_value": 146.117715, "relative_strength": -36.23329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.340761, "energy": 68.497955, "activity_lines": [ 80.316667, 83.252917, 87.333523, 91.181335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.16, "volume": 5438184, "typical_volume": 3980778.05, "trend": 96.609971, "fair_value": 145.654097, "relative_strength": -34.89459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.142346, "energy": 60.281083, "activity_lines": [ 79.946667, 82.240735, 86.403617, 90.033223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.19, "volume": 3622381, "typical_volume": 3930120.7, "trend": 95.502616, "fair_value": 145.28775, "relative_strength": -28.682122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.950429, "energy": 31.176825, "activity_lines": [ 83.72, 83.481765, 86.585584, 89.683547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }