{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a210458-cf03-4bd8-8895-4bd888890f93", "symbol": "QEMM", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR MSCI EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGICFACTORS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.749, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.849, "architecture_energy": 23.126, "architecture_maturity": 51.395, "architecture_confidence": 88.094, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.69, "rotation_up": 28.43, "upward_expansion": 54.61, "deceleration": 90.51, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 18.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.366513, 78.505687, 78.23028, 76.635776 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 80.2984, "trend_reference": 74.565697, "distance_from_trend": 0.076881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.728193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.536914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1284, "excess_performance": 0.002776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.426831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19831, "relative_activity": 1.203688, "balance": 1.426831, "dry_up": 0.81389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038713, "annualized_volatility": 0.230711, "from_high_reference": -0.026568, "from_low_reference": 0.325338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.565697, "fair_value_reference": 58.728193, "structural_low": 65.958996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00409, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.132549, "worst_return": -0.036189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007782, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025125, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.169083, "worst_return": -0.016891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013493, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.09404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064929, "worst_return": -0.009098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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47.6445, "activity_lines": [ 79.29804, 79.155467, 76.935397, 75.096935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 79.1679, "volume": 14439, "typical_volume": 16689.7, "trend": 72.973847, "fair_value": 57.986172, "relative_strength": 4.092592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.289401, "energy": 43.025402, "activity_lines": [ 79.27314, 79.221721, 77.35263, 75.528254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.28, "volume": 15690, "typical_volume": 17125.6, "trend": 73.368463, "fair_value": 58.161938, "relative_strength": 1.766381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.30892, "energy": 23.37078, "activity_lines": [ 78.146273, 78.7118, 77.465726, 75.741554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.0126, "volume": 9529, "typical_volume": 16288.1, "trend": 73.757303, "fair_value": 58.33456, "relative_strength": 3.195366, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.138023, "energy": 20.459805, "activity_lines": [ 77.529713, 78.397922, 77.635697, 75.97666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.81, "volume": 8586, "typical_volume": 16166.8, "trend": 74.134806, "fair_value": 58.519794, "relative_strength": 2.98615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.936814, "energy": 18.193451, "activity_lines": [ 77.519233, 78.221986, 77.83838, 76.238124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.2984, "volume": 19831, "typical_volume": 16475.2, "trend": 74.565697, "fair_value": 58.728193, "relative_strength": 2.536914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.849134, "energy": 23.126377, "activity_lines": [ 78.366513, 78.505687, 78.23028, 76.635776 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }