{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a210c20-487a-4dfd-a8f6-3a0cb399bbda", "symbol": "ANA", "name": "Acciona, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 72.232, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -19.973, "architecture_energy": 31.032, "architecture_maturity": 64.139, "architecture_confidence": 92.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.05, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 45.48, "deceleration": 84.9, "rotation_down": 46.42, "downward_expansion": 32.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 235.360005, 245.380627, 248.311795, 242.603267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 214.800003, "trend_reference": 230.952475, "distance_from_trend": -0.069939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 147.558556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.455693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.301626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172489, "excess_performance": -0.001758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.455693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.012821, "dry_up": 0.787234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070841, "annualized_volatility": 0.505362, "from_high_reference": -0.214725, "from_low_reference": 0.305775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.952475, "fair_value_reference": 147.558556, "structural_low": 184.899994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.024431, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011737, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.124864, "worst_return": -0.059533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.055653, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154428, "worst_return": -0.100563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256908, "worst_return": -0.075624, "sufficient": false 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.356692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", 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8.680939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.657777, "energy": 62.623492, "activity_lines": [ 260.791183, 256.621299, 246.863233, 234.975885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 267.273468, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.3, "trend": 221.899141, "fair_value": 143.986783, "relative_strength": 7.016885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.237679, "energy": 75.963401, "activity_lines": [ 264.168956, 259.16737, 249.799751, 238.104494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 250.0, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 75.7, "trend": 224.252474, "fair_value": 144.763937, "relative_strength": 1.138815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.288865, "energy": 56.506604, "activity_lines": [ 260.837341, 258.106021, 250.729397, 239.917453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 245.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.3, "trend": 226.285808, "fair_value": 145.512294, "relative_strength": 1.08982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.490087, "energy": 36.473911, "activity_lines": [ 255.442716, 256.113764, 250.995235, 241.294713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 245.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.8, "trend": 228.299141, "fair_value": 146.236931, "relative_strength": -0.377021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.032701, "energy": 21.797432, "activity_lines": [ 250.60599, 254.328779, 251.270596, 242.54079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 244.600006, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 23.5, "trend": 230.132475, "fair_value": 146.979766, "relative_strength": -0.851154, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.618796, "energy": 24.942285, "activity_lines": [ 247.298236, 252.485613, 251.273576, 243.592459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.5, "trend": 230.952475, "fair_value": 147.558556, "relative_strength": -15.301626, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.972539, "energy": 31.032194, "activity_lines": [ 235.360005, 245.380627, 248.311795, 242.603267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }