{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a2152ef-66b8-4594-9425-329f28812ede", "symbol": "POLAR", "name": "PolarCool AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.062, "architecture_energy": 82.72, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.82, "rotation_up": 8.99, "upward_expansion": 19.52, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 81.68, "downward_expansion": 97.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.890667, 2.230182, 2.813714, 2.935742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.79, "trend_reference": 3.016667, "distance_from_trend": -0.40663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.252422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.783094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.864137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254167, "excess_performance": -0.315661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.783094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.528641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.064068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30798, "relative_activity": 0.529431, "balance": 0.064068, "dry_up": 1.331984, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.325312, "annualized_volatility": 0.761906, "from_high_reference": -0.71129, "from_low_reference": 0.529915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.016667, "fair_value_reference": 8.252422, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.062093, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.568182, "median_excess_return": -0.034888, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.830189, "worst_return": -0.55531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.162791, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.181918, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.939189, "worst_return": -0.57489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.405455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.421249, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.488889, "worst_return": -0.655357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.429825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.297561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.24186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.33758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029851, "active": 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"relative_strength": -45.139257, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.186243, "energy": 48.618829, "activity_lines": [ 2.690667, 3.068364, 3.327905, 3.25871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.1, "volume": 52154, "typical_volume": 60129.2, "trend": 3.189333, "fair_value": 8.70775, "relative_strength": -45.482136, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.010405, "energy": 65.2702, "activity_lines": [ 2.438667, 2.841455, 3.21381, 3.188086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.89, "volume": 51240, "typical_volume": 54708.95, "trend": 3.155667, "fair_value": 8.507893, "relative_strength": -50.713667, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.547259, "energy": 81.718985, "activity_lines": [ 2.195333, 2.609455, 3.082381, 3.104258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.84, "volume": 175744, "typical_volume": 60203.35, "trend": 3.086333, "fair_value": 8.354405, "relative_strength": -51.561775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.362693, "energy": 81.707637, "activity_lines": [ 2.018667, 2.405273, 2.949, 3.019376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.79, "volume": 30798, "typical_volume": 58171.85, "trend": 3.016667, "fair_value": 8.252422, "relative_strength": -52.864137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.061913, "energy": 82.72046, "activity_lines": [ 1.890667, 2.230182, 2.813714, 2.935742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }