{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a23a0c2-d47a-42f8-aa9a-cd1e2a076dd1", "symbol": "GJUL", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - JULY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.114, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.45, "architecture_energy": 80.399, "architecture_maturity": 36.516, "architecture_confidence": 69.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 73.84, "upward_expansion": 89.53, "deceleration": 50.98, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 13.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.981, 43.758091, 43.411502, 42.955238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.526, "trend_reference": 42.425857, "distance_from_trend": 0.049501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.009292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.762013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068026, "excess_performance": -0.057599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.108184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236822, "relative_activity": 1.458977, "balance": 2.108184, "dry_up": 2.197218, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007296, "annualized_volatility": 0.057548, "from_high_reference": -0.000763, "from_low_reference": 0.128383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.425857, "fair_value_reference": 37.009292, "structural_low": 40.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004979, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.000329, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.02136, "worst_return": -0.033747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019074, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004777, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.041962, "worst_return": -0.025055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053314, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032007, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.064145, "worst_return": 0.051144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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154692.55, "trend": 42.32849, "fair_value": 36.919767, "relative_strength": -3.055987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.667925, "energy": 85.18521, "activity_lines": [ 43.69, 43.564, 43.242116, 42.813463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.526, "volume": 236822, "typical_volume": 162320.6, "trend": 42.425857, "fair_value": 37.009292, "relative_strength": -4.762013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.450342, "energy": 80.398637, "activity_lines": [ 43.981, 43.758091, 43.411502, 42.955238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }