{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a2be2bb-0207-409d-9808-1798a0f119a1", "symbol": "ENGH", "name": "Enghouse Systems Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.964, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.127, "architecture_energy": 19.243, "architecture_maturity": 17.445, "architecture_confidence": 49.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.73, "rotation_up": 51.05, "upward_expansion": 32.16, "deceleration": 44.35, "rotation_down": 18.75, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.943333, 16.622545, 16.718314, 16.714314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.6, "trend_reference": 16.866548, "distance_from_trend": 0.043486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.939645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.264818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.58234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016228, "excess_performance": -0.104193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.264818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029356, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016228, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.044665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470300, "relative_activity": 0.742143, "balance": 1.044665, "dry_up": 1.081379, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049797, "annualized_volatility": 0.391752, "from_high_reference": -0.193948, "from_low_reference": 0.211559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.866548, "fair_value_reference": 23.939645, "structural_low": 14.526742, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007637, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008713, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.155069, "worst_return": -0.144798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.052519, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.08383, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.398841, "worst_return": -0.137955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090545, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.195325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313811, "worst_return": -0.23206, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028361, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.164778, "energy": 40.088198, "activity_lines": [ 16.246666, 16.423636, 16.604004, 16.727176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 951400, "typical_volume": 796695.0, "trend": 17.014256, "fair_value": 24.033489, "relative_strength": -21.130528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.132193, "energy": 30.642703, "activity_lines": [ 16.243333, 16.327455, 16.558344, 16.660988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.18, "volume": 556600, "typical_volume": 703865.0, "trend": 16.939191, "fair_value": 23.985389, "relative_strength": -14.692129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.467036, "energy": 9.586346, "activity_lines": [ 16.564667, 16.436727, 16.623735, 16.671681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.6, "volume": 470300, "typical_volume": 633705.0, "trend": 16.866548, "fair_value": 23.939645, "relative_strength": -14.58234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.126703, "energy": 19.242931, "activity_lines": [ 16.943333, 16.622545, 16.718314, 16.714314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }