{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a2fd178-5af8-4acc-9d8d-c95685be839e", "symbol": "STVG", "name": "STV Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.209, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.943, "architecture_energy": 22.663, "architecture_maturity": 9.631, "architecture_confidence": 39.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.04, "rotation_up": 56.24, "upward_expansion": 35.17, "deceleration": 33.23, "rotation_down": 15.58, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.057333, 1.039345, 1.029257, 1.035363 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.0675, "trend_reference": 1.055833, "distance_from_trend": 0.01105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.685451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.366639, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.896809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05531, "excess_performance": -0.106545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.366639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05531, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45921, "relative_activity": 0.12146, "balance": 0.160851, "dry_up": 2.45327, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053765, "annualized_volatility": 0.228354, "from_high_reference": -0.185115, "from_low_reference": 0.116632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.055833, "fair_value_reference": 1.685451, "structural_low": 0.956, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002873, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005304, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.151852, "worst_return": -0.328947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.095991, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.078895, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.268421, "worst_return": -0.357542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112114, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.122024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.498846, "worst_return": -0.424581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.202873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02799, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002336, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.773918, "volume": 991819, "typical_volume": 153126.5, "trend": 2.193448, "fair_value": 2.528064, "relative_strength": -18.40784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -14.007747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.092819, "energy": 32.580487, "activity_lines": [ 1.007933, 1.009618, 1.01571, 1.035901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.07, "volume": 172653, "typical_volume": 294173.7, "trend": 1.0635, "fair_value": 1.700594, "relative_strength": -10.270126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.83743, "energy": 6.486691, "activity_lines": [ 1.0298, 1.019982, 1.01971, 1.036234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0625, "volume": 3409617, "typical_volume": 457912.55, "trend": 1.06075, "fair_value": 1.69523, "relative_strength": -10.332904, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.559875, "energy": 16.066361, "activity_lines": [ 1.047167, 1.028255, 1.023233, 1.03617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 81880, "typical_volume": 425031.0, "trend": 1.05925, "fair_value": 1.690123, "relative_strength": -12.613228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.842622, "energy": 17.846757, "activity_lines": [ 1.050333, 1.031391, 1.024793, 1.034831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0675, "volume": 45921, "typical_volume": 378074.1, "trend": 1.055833, "fair_value": 1.685451, "relative_strength": -9.896809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.942716, "energy": 22.662864, "activity_lines": [ 1.057333, 1.039345, 1.029257, 1.035363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }