{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a328a8a-6845-40c9-ba0d-5de214bb0a96", "symbol": "ACAD", "name": "ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.765, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.917, "architecture_energy": 75.433, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.261, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.63, "rotation_up": 79.55, "upward_expansion": 89.66, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 10.62, "downward_expansion": 14.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.764667, 25.816364, 24.228333, 23.612323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.21, "trend_reference": 23.341333, "distance_from_trend": 0.251428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.185449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.178303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.239813, "excess_performance": 0.05236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.251428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014538, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.331106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275992, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.239813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.478526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13190239, "relative_activity": 1.621166, "balance": 1.478526, "dry_up": 1.04043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06415, "annualized_volatility": 0.399918, "from_high_reference": -0.009159, "from_low_reference": 0.483494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.341333, "fair_value_reference": 21.185449, "structural_low": 19.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.080178, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.093746, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.125813, "worst_return": -0.139572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.112863, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.134531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137916, "worst_return": -0.409454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.124242, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.132151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079066, "worst_return": -0.480996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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6309361, "typical_volume": 8173678.25, "trend": 23.274333, "fair_value": 21.182115, "relative_strength": -4.060372, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.189074, "energy": 67.597493, "activity_lines": [ 25.501333, 24.433273, 23.301952, 23.061011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.87, "volume": 6906613, "typical_volume": 8166747.5, "trend": 23.260333, "fair_value": 21.173654, "relative_strength": -0.373269, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.251045, "energy": 59.857728, "activity_lines": [ 25.594667, 24.864545, 23.618619, 23.228473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.21, "volume": 13190239, "typical_volume": 8136265.7, "trend": 23.341333, "fair_value": 21.185449, "relative_strength": 7.178303, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.917453, "energy": 75.432906, "activity_lines": [ 26.764667, 25.816364, 24.228333, 23.612323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }