{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a40f795-c1c4-4c99-ba6b-5569ed42715a", "symbol": "MMS", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU Small Cap ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF DIST", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.588, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.134, "architecture_energy": 48.321, "architecture_maturity": 41.096, "architecture_confidence": 56.04, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.37, "rotation_up": 45.36, "upward_expansion": 73.5, "deceleration": 67.38, "rotation_down": 29.0, "downward_expansion": 11.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 442.193339, 441.819096, 439.121669, 431.706669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 448.950012, "trend_reference": 423.045001, "distance_from_trend": 0.061235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 370.817793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.114803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097677, "excess_performance": -0.073214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044649, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 22.856661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234, "relative_activity": 0.13217, "balance": 22.856661, "dry_up": 0.264622, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018213, "annualized_volatility": 0.164892, "from_high_reference": -0.004876, "from_low_reference": 0.214719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 423.045001, "fair_value_reference": 370.817793, "structural_low": 379.600006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001858, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006119, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.002964, "worst_return": -0.00668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.047833, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047833, "worst_return": 0.047833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029713, "worst_return": 0.029713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030293, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-23", "close": 328.43396, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 330.723206, 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440.440001, 429.295953, 422.437461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 447.75, "volume": 162, "typical_volume": 1868.95, "trend": 415.428335, "fair_value": 368.014881, "relative_strength": -4.868219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.519686, "energy": 60.591736, "activity_lines": [ 443.92667, 442.440001, 431.88381, 424.65656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 436.5, "volume": 346, "typical_volume": 1883.5, "trend": 416.775001, "fair_value": 368.562762, "relative_strength": -6.632993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.390815, "energy": 45.353193, "activity_lines": [ 441.683335, 441.940001, 433.211905, 426.016022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 438.700012, "volume": 1510, "typical_volume": 1952.5, "trend": 418.516668, "fair_value": 369.119407, "relative_strength": -4.60579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.768261, "energy": 39.633424, "activity_lines": [ 440.363338, 441.550913, 434.647383, 427.430539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 435.75, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 1947.1, "trend": 420.063334, "fair_value": 369.644057, "relative_strength": -4.874455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.613906, "energy": 35.690165, "activity_lines": [ 438.403337, 440.545458, 435.709764, 428.542367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 441.75, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 1942.95, "trend": 421.59, "fair_value": 370.207385, "relative_strength": -4.055352, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.2283, "energy": 30.3036, "activity_lines": [ 439.240002, 440.526367, 437.197859, 429.941507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 448.950012, "volume": 234, "typical_volume": 1770.45, "trend": 423.045001, "fair_value": 370.817793, "relative_strength": -5.114803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.133973, "energy": 48.321262, "activity_lines": [ 442.193339, 441.819096, 439.121669, 431.706669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }