{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5a415e59-ab2f-4dfe-823b-e2ec40eab33b",
    "symbol": "IEMO",
    "name": "iShares Edge MSCI Europe Momentum Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 52.146,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.189,
    "architecture_energy": 38.973,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.397,
    "architecture_confidence": 49.932,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.8,
        "rotation_up": 45.83,
        "upward_expansion": 73.86,
        "deceleration": 66.27,
        "rotation_down": 26.74,
        "downward_expansion": 9.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.871067,
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        15.733467,
        15.556955
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 16.0,
    "trend_reference": 15.399933,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.038966,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.346712,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295892,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.150765,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.043841,
    "excess_performance": -0.12705,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038966,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035814,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.295892,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003378,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071508,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022549,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043841,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.607979,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 86673,
      "relative_activity": 0.780572,
      "balance": 0.607979,
      "dry_up": 0.787997,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021298,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.178191,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00892,
      "from_low_reference": 0.200841
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.399933,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.346712,
      "structural_low": 13.576,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.01104,
        "positive_rate": 0.619048,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.619048,
        "median_excess_return": 3e-06,
        "regime_survival": 0.857143,
        "best_return": 0.068882,
        "worst_return": -0.109484,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "worst_return": -0.068326,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
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        "worst_return": -0.144233,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.086795,
        "sufficient": false
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        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 12.175064,
        "relative_strength": -7.10022,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 61.188107,
        "energy": 64.978103,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 15.638,
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        "typical_volume": 128747.65,
        "trend": 15.290533,
        "fair_value": 12.216814,
        "relative_strength": -6.470138,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.796482,
        "energy": 42.934492,
        "activity_lines": [
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          15.581981,
          15.445604
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.894,
        "volume": 43772,
        "typical_volume": 115918.2,
        "trend": 15.337267,
        "fair_value": 12.259301,
        "relative_strength": -4.676513,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.749303,
        "energy": 43.324904,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.832,
        "volume": 135242,
        "typical_volume": 113241.3,
        "trend": 15.372267,
        "fair_value": 12.302949,
        "relative_strength": -5.56942,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.273901,
        "energy": 29.756361,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.8236,
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          15.680228,
          15.516456
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.0,
        "volume": 86673,
        "typical_volume": 111037.8,
        "trend": 15.399933,
        "fair_value": 12.346712,
        "relative_strength": -7.150765,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.188922,
        "energy": 38.972837,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.871067,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}