{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a430978-0a90-4aab-bce3-3a243596db91", "symbol": "MIR", "name": "Mirion Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.611, "architecture_energy": 63.48, "architecture_maturity": 57.185, "architecture_confidence": 88.754, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.2, "rotation_up": 13.42, "upward_expansion": 12.81, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 71.98, "downward_expansion": 90.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.802, 16.450182, 17.251, 17.963204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.71, "trend_reference": 19.390667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.663333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.856896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.34732, "excess_performance": -0.472945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23439491, "relative_activity": 1.222373, "balance": 0.478623, "dry_up": 1.155801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117925, "annualized_volatility": 0.350863, "from_high_reference": -0.481124, "from_low_reference": 0.113395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.390667, "fair_value_reference": 15.663333, "structural_low": 14.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015725, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.351536, "worst_return": -0.158046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.142105, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.040649, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.458136, "worst_return": -0.117291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.302313, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.19546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.810727, "worst_return": -0.156069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062269, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060081, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.023955, "energy": 35.490464, "activity_lines": [ 17.576667, 17.682727, 18.207619, 19.082495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.97, "volume": 16006479, "typical_volume": 18498743.5, "trend": 20.268, "fair_value": 15.508269, "relative_strength": -32.674407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.170567, "energy": 45.130565, "activity_lines": [ 17.033333, 17.334182, 17.950571, 18.788903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.54, "volume": 19068944, "typical_volume": 18813901.15, "trend": 20.027667, "fair_value": 15.566667, "relative_strength": -29.330481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.629001, "energy": 49.69089, "activity_lines": [ 16.719333, 17.144182, 17.774667, 18.548387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.98, "volume": 30136859, "typical_volume": 19242393.6, "trend": 19.732667, "fair_value": 15.612564, "relative_strength": -36.215629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.681203, "energy": 66.169609, "activity_lines": [ 16.023333, 16.700182, 17.469238, 18.222731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.71, "volume": 23439491, "typical_volume": 19175402.4, "trend": 19.390667, "fair_value": 15.663333, "relative_strength": -34.856896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.610715, "energy": 63.480389, "activity_lines": [ 15.802, 16.450182, 17.251, 17.963204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }