{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a46ef4d-7cf1-4462-b52f-085a689247de", "symbol": "STARPAPER", "name": "Star Paper Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.959, "architecture_energy": 63.333, "architecture_maturity": 8.653, "architecture_confidence": 67.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.52, "rotation_up": 72.17, "upward_expansion": 63.11, "deceleration": 20.96, "rotation_down": 16.78, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 148.574665, 144.474181, 141.839, 140.627871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 152.529999, "trend_reference": 140.819, "distance_from_trend": 0.083163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 188.748176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.244845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034312, "excess_performance": 0.078021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083163, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052373, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012448, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.338641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60343, "relative_activity": 1.038286, "balance": 3.338641, "dry_up": 2.100046, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049196, "annualized_volatility": 0.238277, "from_high_reference": -0.175985, "from_low_reference": 0.281226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.819, "fair_value_reference": 188.748176, "structural_low": 119.050003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004267, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006969, "worst_return": -0.025703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048788, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288478, "worst_return": -0.077236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.123485, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.156088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319084, "worst_return": -0.081072, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 189.16467, "relative_strength": -7.264297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.2347, "energy": 8.796173, "activity_lines": [ 138.496669, 138.147638, 138.069477, 139.139807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 139.039993, "volume": 18380, "typical_volume": 45913.3, "trend": 142.076, "fair_value": 188.997021, "relative_strength": -7.407537, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.491918, "energy": 10.874706, "activity_lines": [ 138.883999, 138.216363, 138.237238, 138.891742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.75, "volume": 310779, "typical_volume": 58254.25, "trend": 141.573667, "fair_value": 188.904843, "relative_strength": 0.976735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.881085, "energy": 25.164287, "activity_lines": [ 141.941999, 139.960182, 139.239571, 139.257806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.389999, "volume": 98699, "typical_volume": 59876.25, "trend": 141.110333, "fair_value": 188.834487, "relative_strength": 1.082831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.677718, "energy": 52.967223, "activity_lines": [ 145.511332, 142.216909, 140.527619, 139.891118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.529999, "volume": 60343, "typical_volume": 58117.9, "trend": 140.819, "fair_value": 188.748176, "relative_strength": 1.244845, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.959473, "energy": 63.332611, "activity_lines": [ 148.574665, 144.474181, 141.839, 140.627871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }