{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a4ca655-6a41-48fa-8955-a1c9d572a77f", "symbol": "CURV", "name": "Torrid Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 266, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 20, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 82.572, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 80.995, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.255, "architecture_energy": 79.508, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.538, "architecture_age_weeks": 6, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.255, "energy": 79.508, "maturity": 32.0, "confidence": 82.538, "confirmation": 99.342, "age_weeks": 6, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 78.97, "upward_expansion": 92.97, "deceleration": 42.18, "rotation_down": 9.33, "downward_expansion": 17.31 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 2.358667, "10": 2.169455, "20": 1.962, "30": 1.826688 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.342024, "10": 1.132757, "20": 0.656112, "30": 0.584579 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.473028, "fan_width_change_4": 0.736889, "fan_width_percentile": 0.615385, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.023731, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.617045, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.529795, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 83/100." }, "latest_close": 2.55, "sma_30": 1.631333, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.563139, "sma_30_slope": 0.212587, "fair_value": 3.76891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323412, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.236388, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 47.427865, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 78.767685, "range_position_52": 0.840781, "returns": { "13": 0.508876, "26": 1.217391, "52": 0.02 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 1.132071, "52": -0.194835 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 49.93, "2": 44.0, "3": 20.07, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.563139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.212587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323412, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.236388, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.474279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.787677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.217391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.778932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1681090, "ratio_20": 0.457285, "up_down_ratio_13": 3.778932, "dry_up_ratio": 0.351159, "accumulation_weeks": 1, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 2.555, "low_26": 0.98, "depth": 0.616438, "compression": 0.685333, "breakout_distance": -0.001957 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.141626, "annualized_volatility": 0.791378, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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"architecture_direction": 77.255472, "architecture_energy": 79.507943, "activity_5": 2.358667, "activity_10": 2.169455, "activity_20": 1.962, "activity_30": 1.826688 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01828, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010572, "stage_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.51145, "worst_return": -0.404545, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.158457, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060089, "stage_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.496988, "worst_return": -0.355505, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.387864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.491655, "stage_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.662651, "worst_return": -0.566188, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, 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14, "return": 0.001522 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "weeks": 18, "return": 0.413965 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "weeks": 10, "return": -0.082935 }, { "stage": 3, "name": "Distribution", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "weeks": 13, "return": -0.043233 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "weeks": 38, "return": -0.596774 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 20, "return": 0.59375, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030181, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007242, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.252525, "worst_return": -0.466755, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111293, "positive_rate": 1.0, 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