{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a4d4d1b-9ee3-4437-83de-28197d13ab11", "symbol": "9008", "name": "Bosera Global Exchange Traded Funds Series Open-ended Fund Company - Bosera Hashkey Bitcoin Etf", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.694, "architecture_energy": 38.655, "architecture_maturity": 35.716, "architecture_confidence": 62.452, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.36, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 17.96, "deceleration": 66.66, "rotation_down": 35.1, "downward_expansion": 63.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.629333, 0.623709, 0.654948, 0.669778 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.63, "trend_reference": 0.6967, "distance_from_trend": -0.095737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.386636, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.226273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015625, "excess_performance": 0.017956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.007123, "balance": 1.128526, "dry_up": 0.694729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05348, "annualized_volatility": 0.318745, "from_high_reference": -0.486134, "from_low_reference": 0.084337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6967, "fair_value_reference": 3.386636, "structural_low": 0.581, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 6.305, "volume": 95950, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 6.61, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 6.695, "volume": 14560, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 6.795, "volume": 63140, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.694367, "energy": 38.655487, "activity_lines": [ 0.629333, 0.623709, 0.654948, 0.669778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }