{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a55985f-378b-46bb-b18b-de0c8e8c33fa", "symbol": "TATT", "name": "Tat Techno", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.853, "architecture_energy": 28.289, "architecture_maturity": 21.695, "architecture_confidence": 68.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.49, "rotation_up": 11.85, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 58.14, "rotation_down": 59.85, "downward_expansion": 69.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.198, 42.215455, 41.713667, 42.643989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.64, "trend_reference": 44.662167, "distance_from_trend": -0.112448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.558949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.492529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.336999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172097, "excess_performance": -0.359551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.492529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.699819, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1555347, "relative_activity": 1.504065, "balance": 2.699819, "dry_up": 0.927089, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170336, "annualized_volatility": 0.623123, "from_high_reference": -0.385426, "from_low_reference": 0.30588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.662167, "fair_value_reference": 26.558949, "structural_low": 31.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.023657, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.01281, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.249186, "worst_return": -0.145161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076914, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.105032, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.48, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.143907, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.167002, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.501331, "worst_return": -0.074016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.717383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.343454, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.957169, "worst_return": -0.154331, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.504009, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.306544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.11751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.216823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.217966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052355, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.27, "volume": 20675, "typical_volume": 27007.0, "trend": 6.482603, "fair_value": 5.926461, "relative_strength": -0.253266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 47.6, "volume": 669266, "typical_volume": 1018160.25, "trend": 45.328667, "fair_value": 25.490787, "relative_strength": -1.822493, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.41685, "energy": 32.671449, "activity_lines": [ 46.642, 44.027818, 42.700095, 44.113731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.28, "volume": 678338, "typical_volume": 1038776.35, "trend": 45.455667, "fair_value": 25.72036, "relative_strength": -12.460949, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.353035, "energy": 23.502278, "activity_lines": [ 45.716667, 44.337818, 42.616643, 43.981559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.2, "volume": 792011, "typical_volume": 1054506.45, "trend": 45.459667, "fair_value": 25.92959, "relative_strength": -15.210676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.80901, "energy": 14.59706, "activity_lines": [ 43.813333, 43.966182, 42.285429, 43.642484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.83, "volume": 752037, "typical_volume": 1050836.75, "trend": 45.338167, "fair_value": 26.149847, "relative_strength": -10.448733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.316694, "energy": 15.8586, "activity_lines": [ 42.783333, 43.822182, 42.18169, 43.408312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.9, "volume": 735398, "typical_volume": 1050699.45, "trend": 45.048833, "fair_value": 26.352603, "relative_strength": -17.041954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.007907, "energy": 29.150624, "activity_lines": [ 41.105333, 42.968182, 41.874571, 42.992946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.64, "volume": 1555347, "typical_volume": 1034095.55, "trend": 44.662167, "fair_value": 26.558949, "relative_strength": -19.336999, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.852623, "energy": 28.28946, "activity_lines": [ 40.198, 42.215455, 41.713667, 42.643989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }