{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a6831a6-1beb-4608-b378-15ba9d797ac3", "symbol": "AVD", "name": "American Vanguard Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.306, "architecture_energy": 55.326, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.017, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.62, "rotation_up": 17.18, "upward_expansion": 12.91, "deceleration": 38.2, "rotation_down": 65.06, "downward_expansion": 86.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.481333, 2.605636, 2.67219, 2.857226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.41, "trend_reference": 3.284667, "distance_from_trend": -0.266288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.428478, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.625106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.384778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.517034, "excess_performance": -0.642659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.625106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.463848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084068, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.517034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 824569, "relative_activity": 0.500848, "balance": 0.673384, "dry_up": 0.482379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168369, "annualized_volatility": 0.988919, "from_high_reference": -0.592905, "from_low_reference": 0.17561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.284667, "fair_value_reference": 6.428478, "structural_low": 2.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.001706, "positive_rate": 0.540541, "directional_follow_through": 0.459459, "median_excess_return": -0.02274, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.368531, "worst_return": -0.377049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.060288, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.129066, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.683457, "worst_return": -0.436928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.083601, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142151, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.434891, "worst_return": -0.493164, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 2.744, 2.749273, 2.754095, 3.035978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.57, "volume": 925576, "typical_volume": 1836948.2, "trend": 3.38, "fair_value": 6.603752, "relative_strength": -41.694484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.579732, "energy": 31.486029, "activity_lines": [ 2.685333, 2.717273, 2.728905, 2.980624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.39, "volume": 903077, "typical_volume": 1804190.15, "trend": 3.332667, "fair_value": 6.507999, "relative_strength": -45.727955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.513027, "energy": 43.016632, "activity_lines": [ 2.572, 2.655818, 2.695619, 2.916753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.41, "volume": 824569, "typical_volume": 1646345.5, "trend": 3.284667, "fair_value": 6.428478, "relative_strength": -46.384778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.305889, "energy": 55.325589, "activity_lines": [ 2.481333, 2.605636, 2.67219, 2.857226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }