{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a6f69e9-c51c-4e16-a418-9fda1455e9ae", "symbol": "603155", "name": "Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.546, "architecture_energy": 24.812, "architecture_maturity": 63.523, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.86, "rotation_up": 23.02, "upward_expansion": 55.98, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 43.5, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.674246, 14.856806, 14.310829, 13.675397 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.08, "trend_reference": 13.018544, "distance_from_trend": 0.081534, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.080464, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.067293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.189003, "excess_performance": 0.232207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081534, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189003, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.267301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55413354, "relative_activity": 0.72626, "balance": 3.267301, "dry_up": 1.022944, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197807, "annualized_volatility": 0.6901, "from_high_reference": -0.327421, "from_low_reference": 0.414058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.018544, "fair_value_reference": 10.080464, "structural_low": 9.957156, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022868, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.155498, "worst_return": -0.08847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047001, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094971, "worst_return": -0.124201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007292, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2818, "worst_return": -0.043716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", 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"trend": 12.812352, "fair_value": 10.03086, "relative_strength": 55.621578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.955016, "energy": 90.338001, "activity_lines": [ 17.728783, 16.115684, 14.277104, 13.562135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.23, "volume": 107805778, "typical_volume": 83607993.7, "trend": 12.884076, "fair_value": 10.04776, "relative_strength": 22.612389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.904349, "energy": 53.24253, "activity_lines": [ 16.790097, 15.97963, 14.373463, 13.653596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.85, "volume": 77467516, "typical_volume": 79396450.4, "trend": 12.923085, "fair_value": 10.05779, "relative_strength": 9.044342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.976997, "energy": 28.830177, "activity_lines": [ 15.460978, 15.561775, 14.336575, 13.651398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.15, "volume": 71514263, "typical_volume": 75633609.8, "trend": 12.934932, "fair_value": 10.062897, "relative_strength": 2.486793, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.497916, "energy": 16.035418, "activity_lines": [ 14.080356, 15.022636, 14.23356, 13.601521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.08, "volume": 55413354, "typical_volume": 76299577.4, "trend": 13.018544, "fair_value": 10.080464, "relative_strength": 15.067293, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.546233, "energy": 24.812151, "activity_lines": [ 13.674246, 14.856806, 14.310829, 13.675397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }