{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a711e77-3758-426f-be9b-66c3ee257af6", "symbol": "CCP", "name": "Celtic plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.09, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.399, "architecture_energy": 21.529, "architecture_maturity": 61.781, "architecture_confidence": 88.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.68, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 51.99, "deceleration": 93.85, "rotation_down": 47.3, "downward_expansion": 24.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 211.407593, 220.464445, 219.081836, 213.416831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 207.022137, "distance_from_trend": -0.009768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.06836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.459806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051282, "excess_performance": 4.7e-05, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50487, "relative_activity": 1.677981, "balance": 1.020442, "dry_up": 1.879972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080491, "annualized_volatility": 0.257117, "from_high_reference": -0.196913, "from_low_reference": 0.28125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 207.022137, "fair_value_reference": 165.06836, "structural_low": 180.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.011189, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.201419, "worst_return": -0.098039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03128, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042994, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205128, "worst_return": -0.145098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072549, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.108348, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077348, "worst_return": -0.161765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019734, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.584314, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037559, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-21", "close": 132.5, "volume": 15479, "typical_volume": 24316.7, "trend": 119.383333, "fair_value": 111.948718, "relative_strength": 12.585861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"fair_value": 162.998598, "relative_strength": 10.243322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.261974, "energy": 49.61422, "activity_lines": [ 234.57224, 233.318002, 218.822872, 212.004551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 214.3828, "volume": 56369, "typical_volume": 24739.0, "trend": 205.60547, "fair_value": 163.555539, "relative_strength": 3.447442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.033452, "energy": 27.935519, "activity_lines": [ 226.547753, 231.155215, 219.31037, 212.628643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 213.0, "volume": 51014, "typical_volume": 26095.25, "trend": 206.35547, "fair_value": 164.08759, "relative_strength": 1.553489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.34039, "energy": 26.468605, "activity_lines": [ 220.30348, 228.34314, 219.573875, 213.105709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 213.0, "volume": 68388, "typical_volume": 28358.65, "trend": 206.822137, "fair_value": 164.603616, "relative_strength": 0.421305, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.662316, "energy": 25.666322, "activity_lines": [ 216.2786, 225.203793, 219.751665, 213.534388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 50487, "typical_volume": 30087.95, "trend": 207.022137, "fair_value": 165.06836, "relative_strength": -3.459806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.398912, "energy": 21.529254, "activity_lines": [ 211.407593, 220.464445, 219.081836, 213.416831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }