{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a7a81ae-a744-4b21-9a69-18221b36a978", "symbol": "VGER", "name": "Vanguard Germany All Cap UCITS ETF EUR Distributing", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.493, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.11, "architecture_energy": 83.685, "architecture_maturity": 9.647, "architecture_confidence": 70.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 76.68, "upward_expansion": 91.54, "deceleration": 44.78, "rotation_down": 10.55, "downward_expansion": 18.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.056667, 32.666439, 32.240271, 31.953778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.075001, "trend_reference": 31.828187, "distance_from_trend": 0.070592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.223547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.334655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058242, "excess_performance": -0.024641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070592, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.992081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28276, "relative_activity": 5.326251, "balance": 3.992081, "dry_up": 2.911628, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020755, "annualized_volatility": 0.191969, "from_high_reference": -0.000293, "from_low_reference": 0.195614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.828187, "fair_value_reference": 28.223547, "structural_low": 28.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.007088, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.010635, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.114806, "worst_return": -0.115272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014806, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.018839, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138907, "worst_return": -0.090076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012328, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142412, "worst_return": -0.038143, "sufficient": true 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"close": 32.099998, "volume": 2160, "typical_volume": 4181.45, "trend": 31.75642, "fair_value": 28.02615, "relative_strength": -8.56638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.474974, "energy": 24.568649, "activity_lines": [ 32.190332, 32.099401, 31.759486, 31.688117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.305, "volume": 8403, "typical_volume": 4482.8, "trend": 31.765749, "fair_value": 28.083558, "relative_strength": -7.551059, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.479452, "energy": 43.167813, "activity_lines": [ 32.232333, 32.160698, 31.848721, 31.723509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.055, "volume": 22990, "typical_volume": 3900.3, "trend": 31.795093, "fair_value": 28.149887, "relative_strength": -5.230452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.500155, "energy": 60.21829, "activity_lines": [ 32.526333, 32.331439, 32.002686, 31.806687 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.075001, "volume": 28276, "typical_volume": 5308.8, "trend": 31.828187, "fair_value": 28.223547, "relative_strength": -3.334655, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.110135, "energy": 83.685047, "activity_lines": [ 33.056667, 32.666439, 32.240271, 31.953778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }