{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5a7c3403-0f7d-4204-87a6-ee682887dd87",
    "symbol": "LEAD-B",
    "name": "Evolve Future Leadership Unhedged",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 54.201,
    "architecture_energy": 33.154,
    "architecture_maturity": 50.425,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.891,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.2,
        "rotation_up": 38.33,
        "upward_expansion": 61.58,
        "deceleration": 84.56,
        "rotation_down": 26.58,
        "downward_expansion": 20.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.205094,
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        22.993873,
        22.565293
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 23.5,
    "trend_reference": 22.179896,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.059518,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.78733,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187629,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.300667,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.148691,
    "excess_performance": 0.02827,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059518,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010117,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.187629,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004749,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.093007,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032986,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.148691,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.25,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 1.25,
      "dry_up": 0.368098,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026948,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.173939,
      "from_high_reference": -0.082075,
      "from_low_reference": 0.188628
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 22.179896,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.78733,
      "structural_low": 19.770691,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": 0.015648,
        "positive_rate": 0.703704,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.703704,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002846,
        "regime_survival": 0.740741,
        "best_return": 0.140727,
        "worst_return": -0.064487,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.059546,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037997,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.151302,
        "worst_return": -0.132513,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.027344,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.045005,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "direction": -31.590973,
        "energy": 26.128642,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 21.850294,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 2245.0,
        "trend": 22.643218,
        "fair_value": 18.851005,
        "relative_strength": -15.227487,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "energy": 29.426274,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 22.557358,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 2225.0,
        "trend": 22.581463,
        "fair_value": 18.917972,
        "relative_strength": -12.599304,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "direction": 17.377778,
        "energy": 35.971324,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 23.018915,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2200.0,
        "trend": 22.532611,
        "fair_value": 18.986343,
        "relative_strength": -9.803231,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 27.998239,
        "energy": 51.147972,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 23.176043,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 2250.0,
        "trend": 22.474106,
        "fair_value": 19.055671,
        "relative_strength": -10.506489,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.541823,
        "energy": 72.118035,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 2220.0,
        "trend": 22.406582,
        "fair_value": 19.126039,
        "relative_strength": -9.781693,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 77.515423,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 22.692089,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 2210.0,
        "trend": 22.355792,
        "fair_value": 19.190984,
        "relative_strength": -11.536851,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.315035,
        "energy": 67.321104,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 22.781271,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1985.0,
        "trend": 22.304849,
        "fair_value": 19.255391,
        "relative_strength": -12.155744,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 28.224512,
        "energy": 44.650206,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 23.336187,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1935.0,
        "trend": 22.307104,
        "fair_value": 19.324768,
        "relative_strength": -9.715265,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.81781,
        "energy": 50.290568,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 22.482161,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1785.0,
        "trend": 22.24989,
        "fair_value": 19.387935,
        "relative_strength": -12.541141,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.887076,
        "energy": 27.528007,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.863897,
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          22.287751,
          22.133672
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 23.777973,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 1540.0,
        "trend": 22.245011,
        "fair_value": 19.458545,
        "relative_strength": -7.75184,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 52.766162,
        "energy": 44.983208,
        "activity_lines": [
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          22.232258
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 23.748251,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1530.0,
        "trend": 22.248598,
        "fair_value": 19.526627,
        "relative_strength": -7.551998,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.910132,
        "energy": 58.232323,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.383552,
          23.215744,
          22.648929,
          22.329242
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.391582,
        "volume": 900,
        "typical_volume": 1545.0,
        "trend": 22.248175,
        "fair_value": 19.592626,
        "relative_strength": -8.327061,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.304357,
        "energy": 58.985587,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.439023,
          23.267938,
          22.774434,
          22.402982
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.668333,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1375.0,
        "trend": 22.214189,
        "fair_value": 19.655446,
        "relative_strength": -10.899064,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.531363,
        "energy": 50.551388,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.212724,
          23.173464,
          22.818627,
          22.430089
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 23.01,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 1200.0,
        "trend": 22.20016,
        "fair_value": 19.719588,
        "relative_strength": -8.731884,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.615386,
        "energy": 34.409267,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.144837,
          23.147486,
          22.88827,
          22.481432
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 815.0,
        "trend": 22.179896,
        "fair_value": 19.78733,
        "relative_strength": -9.300667,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.200942,
        "energy": 33.153596,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.205094,
          23.213617,
          22.993873,
          22.565293
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}