{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a84c428-cedc-45eb-af36-7be4ccc7ed97", "symbol": "TOM", "name": "TomCo Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.822, "architecture_energy": 67.101, "architecture_maturity": 81.377, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 29.14, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.72, "rotation_down": 61.79, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00024, 0.000247, 0.000263, 0.000293 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00024, "trend_reference": 0.000364, "distance_from_trend": -0.340055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.000489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.508726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.242223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.647059, "excess_performance": -0.698294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.340055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.508726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.647059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.089314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5270512, "relative_activity": 0.118869, "balance": 0.089314, "dry_up": 0.457513, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080128, "annualized_volatility": 0.847365, "from_high_reference": -0.76, "from_low_reference": 0.043478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000364, "fair_value_reference": 0.000489, "structural_low": 0.00023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.031494, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.04634, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.529032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.106061, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127285, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.321429, "worst_return": -0.737705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033488, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.698462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.432727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.514504, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.116279, "worst_return": -0.859016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.348837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.785714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205479, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"trend": 0.000411, "fair_value": 0.000504, "relative_strength": -49.897704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.329304, "energy": 68.925235, "activity_lines": [ 0.00025, 0.000259, 0.000278, 0.000324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00024, "volume": 53164470, "typical_volume": 72460334.65, "trend": 0.000399, "fair_value": 0.000499, "relative_strength": -50.191832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.180662, "energy": 74.74695, "activity_lines": [ 0.000245, 0.000254, 0.000272, 0.000313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00024, "volume": 4646930, "typical_volume": 46611499.0, "trend": 0.000381, "fair_value": 0.000494, "relative_strength": -50.445725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.375342, "energy": 67.792654, "activity_lines": [ 0.000241, 0.00025, 0.000268, 0.000302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00024, "volume": 5270512, "typical_volume": 44338653.2, "trend": 0.000364, "fair_value": 0.000489, "relative_strength": -50.242223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.821791, "energy": 67.101362, "activity_lines": [ 0.00024, 0.000247, 0.000263, 0.000293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }