{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a8bf0c1-10ce-47d8-b35d-e9afadda6611", "symbol": "PUK", "name": "Prudential PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.251, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.888, "architecture_energy": 20.854, "architecture_maturity": 24.031, "architecture_confidence": 60.947, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 40.24, "upward_expansion": 26.14, "deceleration": 40.33, "rotation_down": 20.94, "downward_expansion": 48.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.011333, 28.363091, 28.539857, 28.799765 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.28, "trend_reference": 29.327187, "distance_from_trend": -0.035707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.381545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263541, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.386715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121526, "excess_performance": -0.247151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072163, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7333474, "relative_activity": 1.441632, "balance": 1.072163, "dry_up": 1.102528, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063404, "annualized_volatility": 0.317147, "from_high_reference": -0.157662, "from_low_reference": 0.149126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.327187, "fair_value_reference": 22.381545, "structural_low": 24.61, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030953, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.05134, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.164413, "worst_return": -0.131089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113282, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.160766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281727, "worst_return": -0.17968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.168436, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.232745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231201, "worst_return": -0.231538, 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27.556364, 28.44228, 28.916121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.29, "volume": 4381087, "typical_volume": 4918135.3, "trend": 29.514797, "fair_value": 22.302771, "relative_strength": -8.936025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.028581, "energy": 26.037804, "activity_lines": [ 27.778667, 27.569091, 28.392076, 28.832507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.34, "volume": 4734977, "typical_volume": 4899056.15, "trend": 29.452281, "fair_value": 22.32034, "relative_strength": -5.017827, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.823347, "energy": 18.829405, "activity_lines": [ 28.399333, 27.825818, 28.451621, 28.82123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.26, "volume": 5984359, "typical_volume": 4960029.45, "trend": 29.420432, "fair_value": 22.355965, "relative_strength": -3.128354, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.672736, "energy": 17.929418, "activity_lines": [ 29.156667, 28.272545, 28.594797, 28.873341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.28, "volume": 7333474, "typical_volume": 5086924.15, "trend": 29.327187, "fair_value": 22.381545, "relative_strength": -12.386715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.88841, "energy": 20.853859, "activity_lines": [ 29.011333, 28.363091, 28.539857, 28.799765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }