{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a8d6e62-137c-4a0a-93bc-8d84d583e1bf", "symbol": "ALLIX", "name": "WALLIX GROUP SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.078, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.847, "architecture_energy": 32.628, "architecture_maturity": 40.111, "architecture_confidence": 89.938, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.04, "rotation_up": 16.34, "upward_expansion": 2.75, "deceleration": 49.27, "rotation_down": 54.45, "downward_expansion": 76.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.766666, 22.93, 23.423571, 23.553763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.4, "trend_reference": 24.161667, "distance_from_trend": -0.072912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.3875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.455727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.978737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240678, "excess_performance": -0.293989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.455727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21189, "relative_activity": 0.356621, "balance": 0.820643, "dry_up": 0.825488, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069712, "annualized_volatility": 0.337999, "from_high_reference": -0.258278, "from_low_reference": 0.100737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.161667, "fair_value_reference": 15.3875, "structural_low": 20.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.036885, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030546, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.22439, "worst_return": -0.243307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025527, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.060583, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.085542, "worst_return": -0.266491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.12852, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.133859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.242967, "worst_return": -0.254617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.13871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.20204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057671, "worst_return": -0.335092, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.196819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.265882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050847, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.28, "volume": 6639, "typical_volume": 39960.4, "trend": 11.682667, "fair_value": 19.056282, "relative_strength": -19.853453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"close": 22.799999, "volume": 118686, "typical_volume": 67045.2, "trend": 24.38, "fair_value": 15.232436, "relative_strength": -8.340789, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.891095, "energy": 43.040574, "activity_lines": [ 23.013333, 23.39, 23.603095, 23.786344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.65, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 65586.25, "trend": 24.275, "fair_value": 15.310962, "relative_strength": -10.243112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.656392, "energy": 27.844424, "activity_lines": [ 22.943333, 23.169091, 23.524762, 23.674731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.4, "volume": 21189, "typical_volume": 59416.1, "trend": 24.161667, "fair_value": 15.3875, "relative_strength": -12.978737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.84661, "energy": 32.627807, "activity_lines": [ 22.766666, 22.93, 23.423571, 23.553763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }