{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5a9d3469-8394-4148-ad66-4422350f1e27", "symbol": "CUP", "name": "Count Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.024, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.162, "architecture_energy": 31.433, "architecture_maturity": 42.995, "architecture_confidence": 72.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.08, "rotation_up": 59.17, "upward_expansion": 38.72, "deceleration": 34.12, "rotation_down": 19.73, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.095, 1.074591, 1.072655, 1.078478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.135, "trend_reference": 1.081022, "distance_from_trend": 0.049932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.778553, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.457833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.528308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094871, "excess_performance": 0.031165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.457833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015283, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1038319, "relative_activity": 1.446767, "balance": 0.542303, "dry_up": 0.873584, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03287, "annualized_volatility": 0.32287, "from_high_reference": -0.054167, "from_low_reference": 0.354758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.081022, "fair_value_reference": 0.778553, "structural_low": 0.948217, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.005997, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.17094, "worst_return": -0.139079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027026, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008975, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166666, "worst_return": -0.182609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037827, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.044298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302352, "worst_return": -0.146977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.04, "volume": 415846, "typical_volume": 670461.5, "trend": 1.080092, "fair_value": 0.766009, "relative_strength": -1.142311, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.23895, "energy": 34.00849, "activity_lines": [ 1.047167, 1.048182, 1.067905, 1.074502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.045, "volume": 485286, "typical_volume": 672915.05, "trend": 1.078896, "fair_value": 0.769829, "relative_strength": -0.617252, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.728683, "energy": 32.557526, "activity_lines": [ 1.046333, 1.047227, 1.064131, 1.072238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.12, "volume": 568372, "typical_volume": 681353.15, "trend": 1.079382, "fair_value": 0.774129, "relative_strength": 3.723409, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.648895, "energy": 9.837854, "activity_lines": [ 1.070667, 1.060182, 1.067667, 1.07489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.135, "volume": 1038319, "typical_volume": 717682.2, "trend": 1.081022, "fair_value": 0.778553, "relative_strength": 1.528308, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.162352, "energy": 31.433331, "activity_lines": [ 1.095, 1.074591, 1.072655, 1.078478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }