{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5aa2a49c-c1d6-4c4c-878d-7454313f8886", "symbol": "CNIC34", "name": "Canadian National Railway Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.123, "architecture_energy": 69.468, "architecture_maturity": 58.843, "architecture_confidence": 79.16, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 76.58, "upward_expansion": 88.48, "deceleration": 52.58, "rotation_down": 12.3, "downward_expansion": 12.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.251999, 26.709191, 25.574788, 24.842546 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.209999, "trend_reference": 23.962239, "distance_from_trend": 0.135537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.078873, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.348623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.243421, "excess_performance": 0.30047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183506, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.143486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292186, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.243421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.128342, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372, "relative_activity": 0.268476, "balance": 15.128342, "dry_up": 0.07596, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028356, "annualized_volatility": 0.212426, "from_high_reference": -0.024032, "from_low_reference": 0.401559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.962239, "fair_value_reference": 24.078873, "structural_low": 20.917442, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.003883, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.092805, "worst_return": -0.089457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013197, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013058, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060982, "worst_return": -0.114726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03673, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.014669, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.063951, "worst_return": -0.175256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.01898, "relative_strength": 12.698284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.540221, "energy": 92.730714, "activity_lines": [ 26.708, 26.031213, 24.942136, 24.346931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.879999, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 1423.0, "trend": 23.793638, "fair_value": 24.05089, "relative_strength": 13.635912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.136639, "energy": 95.448852, "activity_lines": [ 27.159333, 26.46914, 25.302224, 24.622136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.209999, "volume": 372, "typical_volume": 1385.6, "trend": 23.962239, "fair_value": 24.078873, "relative_strength": 14.348623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.123493, "energy": 69.468475, "activity_lines": [ 27.251999, 26.709191, 25.574788, 24.842546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }