{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5aa35b06-0ff8-4c3d-8075-3de5eabdb297", "symbol": "LSX", "name": "LS telcom AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.25, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.63, "architecture_energy": 23.292, "architecture_maturity": 57.699, "architecture_confidence": 73.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.43, "rotation_up": 23.24, "upward_expansion": 57.74, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 39.69, "downward_expansion": 23.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.894667, 3.967273, 3.914286, 3.843269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.81, "trend_reference": 3.777, "distance_from_trend": 0.008737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.737115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019503, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.757379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018717, "excess_performance": -0.045923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018717, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220, "relative_activity": 0.087541, "balance": 0.586684, "dry_up": 1.248458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04361, "annualized_volatility": 0.168664, "from_high_reference": -0.126147, "from_low_reference": 0.14759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.777, "fair_value_reference": 3.737115, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113267, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.129184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.016129, "worst_return": -0.219101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021326, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023566, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.329032, "worst_return": -0.263717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.022472, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309677, "worst_return": -0.412389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087629, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076705, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.3, "volume": 1131, "typical_volume": 4477.7, "trend": 5.490333, "fair_value": 5.908205, "relative_strength": -23.171547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.055594, 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84.404282, "activity_lines": [ 4.025333, 3.931455, 3.794333, 3.76243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.1, "volume": 791, "typical_volume": 2389.5, "trend": 3.761333, "fair_value": 3.771538, "relative_strength": 1.109235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.865546, "energy": 83.538364, "activity_lines": [ 4.062, 3.975818, 3.830238, 3.785441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.15, "volume": 1553, "typical_volume": 2445.9, "trend": 3.772333, "fair_value": 3.763846, "relative_strength": 5.411814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.09745, "energy": 79.927689, "activity_lines": [ 4.100667, 4.021091, 3.86919, 3.810516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.02, "volume": 921, "typical_volume": 2487.1, "trend": 3.776333, "fair_value": 3.756923, "relative_strength": 3.334715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.385997, "energy": 61.402977, "activity_lines": [ 4.082, 4.034364, 3.89381, 3.826495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 2278.75, "trend": 3.783, "fair_value": 3.749744, "relative_strength": 1.368053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.210963, "energy": 46.539974, "activity_lines": [ 4.05, 4.036182, 3.913286, 3.839634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.81, "volume": 11402, "typical_volume": 2845.15, "trend": 3.780667, "fair_value": 3.741795, "relative_strength": -4.580008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.139521, "energy": 24.938254, "activity_lines": [ 3.962, 4.002, 3.914476, 3.841376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.81, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": 2513.1, "trend": 3.777, "fair_value": 3.737115, "relative_strength": -6.757379, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.629631, "energy": 23.292152, "activity_lines": [ 3.894667, 3.967273, 3.914286, 3.843269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }