{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5aae2b12-0a31-4089-aca3-8c66769a3906", "symbol": "HCL-INSYS", "name": "HCL Infosystems Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.071, "architecture_energy": 55.809, "architecture_maturity": 8.834, "architecture_confidence": 84.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.55, "rotation_up": 11.28, "upward_expansion": 11.74, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 69.21, "downward_expansion": 89.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.486, 11.744727, 11.95919, 12.035355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.48, "trend_reference": 12.218333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.784872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.979479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098193, "excess_performance": -0.054484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 839189, "relative_activity": 0.738045, "balance": 1.559454, "dry_up": 0.620163, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073372, "annualized_volatility": 0.365124, "from_high_reference": -0.304242, "from_low_reference": 0.27414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.218333, "fair_value_reference": 15.784872, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.008772, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.017022, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.38589, "worst_return": -0.100847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020235, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018544, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.330855, "worst_return": -0.177515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013994, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.291815, "worst_return": -0.132716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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31.277273, "activity_lines": [ 12.004667, 12.140182, 12.145095, 12.227376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.34, "volume": 671706, "typical_volume": 1173372.9, "trend": 12.391333, "fair_value": 15.889808, "relative_strength": -11.990441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.532315, "energy": 47.724769, "activity_lines": [ 11.748, 11.993091, 12.073429, 12.154667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 543342, "typical_volume": 1154115.7, "trend": 12.288, "fair_value": 15.831795, "relative_strength": -13.733182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.769118, "energy": 56.36039, "activity_lines": [ 11.563333, 11.854, 12.008286, 12.087484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.48, "volume": 839189, "typical_volume": 1137043.05, "trend": 12.218333, "fair_value": 15.784872, "relative_strength": -12.979479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.070907, "energy": 55.809236, "activity_lines": [ 11.486, 11.744727, 11.95919, 12.035355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }