{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ab0addb-4aff-4a53-a227-59018568a5f4", "symbol": "CIBR", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ CYBERSECURITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.433, "architecture_energy": 66.246, "architecture_maturity": 54.191, "architecture_confidence": 92.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 64.86, "upward_expansion": 86.59, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 23.61, "downward_expansion": 10.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.224667, 91.187273, 86.446798, 81.399942 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 97.85, "trend_reference": 75.891021, "distance_from_trend": 0.289349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.152385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.525275, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.466495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.460154, "excess_performance": 0.272701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.289349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.525275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.280921, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144665, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.460154, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.062393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7192660, "relative_activity": 0.935135, "balance": 2.062393, "dry_up": 0.88884, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060352, "annualized_volatility": 0.306918, "from_high_reference": -0.021206, "from_low_reference": 0.628933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.891021, "fair_value_reference": 64.152385, "structural_low": 60.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.008804, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.004542, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.110073, "worst_return": -0.066513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029598, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.007001, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.182017, "worst_return": -0.150454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105016, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.043704, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218974, "worst_return": -0.165114, "sufficient": true }, { 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7699077.95, "trend": 75.04349, "fair_value": 63.811021, "relative_strength": 13.109919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.496949, "energy": 59.864527, "activity_lines": [ 90.950667, 89.502044, 84.633601, 79.928554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.85, "volume": 7192660, "typical_volume": 7691571.2, "trend": 75.891021, "fair_value": 64.152385, "relative_strength": 14.466495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.433446, "energy": 66.246424, "activity_lines": [ 93.224667, 91.187273, 86.446798, 81.399942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }