{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ab1c8cf-53a1-40af-950f-7b537e8f2faa", "symbol": "PCCE", "name": "LITMAN GREGORY FDS TR POLEN CAPITAL CHINA GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.015, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.181, "architecture_energy": 11.69, "architecture_maturity": 46.928, "architecture_confidence": 69.218, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.19, "rotation_up": 32.01, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 40.24, "rotation_down": 23.98, "downward_expansion": 60.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.533, 12.427904, 12.548507, 12.602197 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.825, "trend_reference": 12.744537, "distance_from_trend": 0.006314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.762747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.671239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033185, "excess_performance": -0.158809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023616, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.245086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3805, "relative_activity": 2.184835, "balance": 2.245086, "dry_up": 1.218024, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029635, "annualized_volatility": 0.158993, "from_high_reference": -0.113831, "from_low_reference": 0.072333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.744537, "fair_value_reference": 11.762747, "structural_low": 11.9599, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029783, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.045074, "worst_return": -0.007195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005625, "worst_return": 0.005625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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12.594576, 12.694034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.15, "volume": 744, "typical_volume": 1999.15, "trend": 12.833518, "fair_value": 11.743139, "relative_strength": -14.880846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.508414, "energy": 64.391369, "activity_lines": [ 12.231667, 12.365976, 12.550173, 12.647623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.225, "volume": 941, "typical_volume": 1716.7, "trend": 12.798387, "fair_value": 11.747025, "relative_strength": -13.496018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.971261, "energy": 48.932726, "activity_lines": [ 12.217333, 12.311915, 12.516495, 12.608364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.65, "volume": 2995, "typical_volume": 1695.2, "trend": 12.772203, "fair_value": 11.754249, "relative_strength": -11.16292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.202111, "energy": 26.156923, "activity_lines": [ 12.363333, 12.351387, 12.524174, 12.59879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.825, "volume": 3805, "typical_volume": 1741.55, "trend": 12.744537, "fair_value": 11.762747, "relative_strength": -12.671239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.181106, "energy": 11.690201, "activity_lines": [ 12.533, 12.427904, 12.548507, 12.602197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }