{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ab504a0-cef9-4dde-8632-6e0de7cb0026", "symbol": "CSH", "name": "Amundi EUR Overnight Return UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.71, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.623, "architecture_energy": 62.926, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.091, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.31, "rotation_up": 54.64, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 25.16, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.207333, 114.142309, 113.961267, 113.800542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 114.190002, "trend_reference": 113.575766, "distance_from_trend": 0.005408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 110.237449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.718509, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010057, "excess_performance": -0.043254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004, "read": "Rising" 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113.053001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.002308, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005019, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003247, "worst_return": 0.001153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00734, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016837, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009776, "worst_return": 0.004397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013304, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023825, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.019381, "worst_return": 0.00935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 86478, "typical_volume": 51951.5, "trend": 113.398366, "fair_value": 109.997148, "relative_strength": -1.790458, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 99.147013, "energy": 99.288759, "activity_lines": [ 114.111132, 113.963363, 113.772328, 113.616245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.050003, "volume": 49594, "typical_volume": 52203.8, "trend": 113.4409, "fair_value": 110.057019, "relative_strength": -2.048016, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.170645, "energy": 76.976698, "activity_lines": [ 114.119333, 113.998855, 113.814033, 113.658286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.309998, "volume": 62541, "typical_volume": 52564.8, "trend": 113.490733, "fair_value": 110.118237, "relative_strength": -2.132516, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.365061, "energy": 73.358056, "activity_lines": [ 114.201333, 114.073236, 113.876309, 113.714357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.169998, "volume": 82445, "typical_volume": 52876.35, "trend": 113.5334, "fair_value": 110.178019, "relative_strength": -3.641958, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.570108, "energy": 67.085457, "activity_lines": [ 114.208666, 114.110309, 113.919919, 113.75818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.190002, "volume": 47235, "typical_volume": 50701.35, "trend": 113.575766, "fair_value": 110.237449, "relative_strength": -5.718509, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.623421, "energy": 62.926478, "activity_lines": [ 114.207333, 114.142309, 113.961267, 113.800542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }